Louisiana Democrats are hoping that Sen. Bill Cassidy’s confirmation vote in support of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could give them a long-shot opening to flip his seat — or at least wreak havoc among Republicans.
Louisiana is a red state that hasn’t elected a Democrat for statewide office in several years. But Democrats are looking at a bleak Senate map that doesn’t give them many pickup opportunities next year. It’s forcing them to look to other states where they would normally not for any sign of momentum — even Louisiana.
And Cassidy has been under scrutiny for how he navigates his relationship with President Donald Trump and Kennedy, with whom he’s clashed often over health policy.
“I think voters are going to judge him on a combination of issues,” Rep. Cleo Fields, a Democrat, told NOTUS. “I’m not obviously running for the Senate, but it’s gonna be an interesting race.”
Besides the political reality of such a deeply conservative state, Democrats face another major problem if they want to flip the seat: a lack of a candidate.
While the Republican primary is putting pressure on Cassidy from the right, no Democrats have launched a bid. Randal Gaines, chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, said in an interview last week that if the party doesn’t “have anybody who feels that sense of urge for public service,” then it will “rebuild the bench.”
“If we don’t have a viable, high-profile candidate, then we’re going to concentrate on, as we have been doing, on developing new young leaders who can hopefully aspire to run for office,” Gaines said. “And it won’t happen overnight. It’s a long game.”
Democrats are, however, waiting to see whether former Gov. John Bel Edwards, an anti-abortion Democrat who served as governor from 2016 to 2024 and has since been serving as special counsel at a Louisiana law firm, will run.
Edwards did not respond to a request for comment.
Democratic state Sen. W. Jay Luneau, who did not respond to a request for comment, has also reportedly been polling to assess his chances.
Robert Collins, a professor of urban studies and public policy at Dillard University, told NOTUS that Edwards entering the race would likely keep other Democrats from jumping in. However, it would still be a “tough race” for him.
“His best hope would be that the Republican primary gets very nasty,” Collins said. “They attack each other, slice each other up and do a lot of damage to each other’s reputation. And then when they get to him, he’ll just be sitting there without having to run a real primary, and he’ll be ready to go.”
Davante Lewis, a Democrat on the Louisiana Public Service Commission, told NOTUS that Edwards is “an option,” but he doesn’t think he’s the only choice.
“I think we have a tendency to want to go to the last highest-elected Democrat,” Lewis said. “I’m not opposed to his potential candidacy, but I don’t think he is the be-all, end-all of options.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee declined to answer questions about its efforts to recruit candidates, but a spokesperson was eager to see Republicans dinging each other in the coming months.
“Republicans are careening towards a nasty primary in Louisiana, where Senator Cassidy’s popularity with the base is cratering and multiple primary challengers are threatening a campaign against him – and whoever limps out of the primary will have to answer for the devastating impact of Medicaid cuts on Louisiana,” Maeve Coyle, DSCC communications director, told NOTUS in a statement.
Cassidy’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. But the senator chairs the Senate Committee on Health, Education and Labor Pensions, and was one of the deciding votes on Kennedy’s confirmation process. Though he expressed skepticism during the process, he eventually supported him after several “intense conversations.”
In the months since, Cassidy has pushed back against several of Kennedy’s decisions, including the termination of the members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and his firing of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Susan Monarez.
Rep. Troy Carter, a Democrat, told NOTUS that he believes that Cassidy’s handling of Kennedy has made him vulnerable.
“Sen. Cassidy had, in my estimation, a tremendous opportunity to demonstrate a strong sense of bipartisanship and fairness when it came to Medicaid, when it came to confirming Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. I think the voters of Louisiana are watching carefully,” Carter told NOTUS.
Republicans are not concerned, given the state’s conservative tilt.
“Essentially, the November [2026] ballot will be a Republican versus a Democrat versus potential for any third-party candidates that end up qualifying,” a Republican operative told NOTUS, referring to the state’s new closed-primary system. “And so it really eliminates the opportunity for Democrats to create any sort of coalition that allows them to overcome that historically low approval rating that they have now.”
The Republican Party of Louisiana did not respond to a request for comment.
Cassidy’s current Republican opposition for his Senate seat includes Louisiana treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez.
Like Democrats, Cassidy’s Republican opponents are also recognizing Cassidy’s precarious spot and are campaigning on it.
“Pro-Trump people feel that he damaged RFK Jr. a lot by making [his confirmation] so difficult,” Fleming, who previously served as Trump’s deputy chief of staff, told NOTUS in June. “But then the Democrats are upset with him for having given in and voted for RFK Jr, which they did not want to see. So I think that the mistake that he made was he should have either been all for him right from the beginning and voting for him, or he should have stayed with his original position and voted against him.”
Cassidy was first elected to the Senate in 2014 after beating out long-time Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu. Cassidy secured Trump’s endorsement for his reelection campaign in 2020, but his vote to convict Trump following the Jan. 6 insurrection has put another endorsement in doubt.