Dems’ Post-Redistricting Prognosis: ‘Definitely Harder’ to Reclaim House Majority

One Democratic strategist estimates the party will effectively have to win a number of seats in the “low double digits.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Texas Democratic Reps. Jasmine Crockett, Greg Casar, and Al Green appear at a press conference.
Tom Williams/AP

The political consequences of a chaotic multi-state redistricting fight are gradually coming into view, according to political strategists in both parties who are quietly making back-of-the-envelope projections about how the redrawn House districts will affect the 2026 midterm elections.

The news isn’t great for Democrats.

Strategists tracking the redistricting efforts say they are likely to be a modest but significant setback to the Democrats’ chances of winning a House majority, one that could conceivably keep the party from controlling the chamber if the political environment isn’t as favorable as they hope.