The political consequences of a chaotic multi-state redistricting fight are gradually coming into view, according to political strategists in both parties who are quietly making back-of-the-envelope projections about how the redrawn House districts will affect the 2026 midterm elections.
The news isn’t great for Democrats.
Strategists tracking the redistricting efforts say they are likely to be a modest but significant setback to the Democrats’ chances of winning a House majority, one that could conceivably keep the party from controlling the chamber if the political environment isn’t as favorable as they hope.
“It’s not impossible,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic strategist, “but it’s definitely harder.”
Isbell, a veteran of past redistricting efforts, said that to claim a majority in 2026, Democrats will likely have to win an additional six to 10 Democratic-held seats whose district lines were redrawn to favor the GOP, on top of the three-seat deficit the party faced when the election cycle began.
That assessment is broadly shared within both parties, whose strategists say that Democrats are now effectively faced with the prospect of needing to make double-digit gains next year or fall short of their electoral goal.
“Every seat is hard, right?” said Tim Persico, a former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “So every seat that you take off the board is a challenge.”
Persico, like other Democrats interviewed for this story, emphasized that they thought Republican-led efforts to redraw district lines in states like Texas could backfire, especially if the political environment shifts against the GOP and turns once-safe seats into battlegrounds. If public sentiment turns sharply toward Democrats, they say, the redistricting efforts might ultimately help them win more seats than they would have under the old maps.
But strategists also acknowledge that the fight over redistricting is currently on track to make life harder for House Democrats, especially in a time when officials from both parties say districts are more polarized than any time in recent memory and there are fewer swing seats to target. The kind of big electoral waves that marked the 2018 and 2010 midterms — which each saw majority parties lose more than 40 House seats — aren’t impossible, they say, but they’re less likely to happen now.
“We’re at a disadvantage compared to where we were prior to redistricting,” said Wendy Davis, former Democratic state senator from Texas who is now working with Texas Majority PAC, a group working to help Democratic candidates win statewide office in the Lone Star State.
A Republican effort in Davis’ home state to redraw Texas’ House districts, made at President Donald Trump’s behest, started the national redistricting fight. (States usually draw new lines every 10 years, after the completion of the census.) The state is expected to redraw five districts to make them more friendly to Republican candidates, including two represented by Democratic lawmakers, Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez.
The move from Texas Republicans prompted California Democrats to threaten that they would redraw congressional district lines. That effort could reportedly make as many as five seats easier for Democrats to win.
But strategists tracking the redistricting effort said they doubted any other Democratic-controlled state would move to redraw its House lines. Republicans, on the other hand, have as many as five states expected to do so.
In Ohio, state lawmakers are required to redraw their maps, and the GOP–controlled Legislature is expected to target seats held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes.
Republicans in Florida and Missouri have each also been supportive of drawing new districts. Missouri is expected to target one blue seat; expectations are murkier for Florida, but strategists say Republicans there could make anywhere from two to four Democratic districts more GOP-friendly.
Indiana could also redraw its lines, although its likelihood of doing so is seen as less clear than that of other states.
Taken together, the net effect of all the redistricting will set Democrats back: Isbell estimated Democrats will effectively have to win a number of seats in the “low double digits.”
None of the states, of course, has actually legally approved its redistricting efforts yet, and political strategists caution that their projections are still subject to revision. California’s proposal, unveiled last week, must be approved by voters in November, and regardless of that election’s outcome, Republicans warn there will be extensive litigation over the effort.
Republicans also say other GOP-controlled states, like South Carolina, might yet decide to become involved.
“Over the next couple of months, these final pieces are going to start falling into place,” said Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. “And we’ll have a much better idea of where things are going to land for 2026.”
Still, Republicans say they feel as if their position in 2026 has only been bolstered by redistricting, while also touting the strong fundraising of many of their swing-district incumbents and their ability to avoid retirements in key districts.
“House Republicans began this cycle on offense, and the environment continues to get better and better for us,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Democrats are broke, divided, and weighed down by a radical agenda voters soundly reject. We’re expanding the battlefield, growing our majority, and the momentum is all on our side.”
Even if incensed by the Republican redistricting effort, Democrats say they are still optimistic that they can win the majority and then some next year. They point to polls, like one released last week from the Pew Research Center, that show Trump’s approval ratings dropping significantly.
“Given the political environment we’re in, Republicans in Texas and in other states thinking about a mid-decade gerrymander, shouldn’t assume seats drawn more favorably to the GOP are an automatic win,” said one Democratic strategist tracking House races. “We’ve seen Democrats at the House level defy the odds before, and Republicans should be careful what they wish for.”
Persico said the GOP’s efforts are reflective of a party that is overconfident about retaining the support of voters who backed Trump in 2024. The next election will be different than 2024, he added, and an unpopular Trump could weigh the GOP down.
“It is the second midterm of an unpopular president,” he said. “Those don’t go great.”