The next Senate majority leader will officially be decided by 53 Republican senators via secret ballot Wednesday morning. But senators are bracing for the vote on Mitch McConnell’s successor to be unofficially swayed by just one man who has, so far, kept conspicuously quiet: Donald Trump.
“The President can do whatever he thinks is right,” Sen. Mike Rounds told NOTUS of Trump potentially weighing in. “But there are pitfalls.”
According to senators who spoke to NOTUS, there are drawbacks to Trump making an endorsement. His preferred candidate could lose — and senators may unintentionally make Trump look weak. Sen. Kevin Cramer said Trump weighing in would constitute an uncomfortable “breach” of the separation of powers. And, perhaps most troubling, offering his endorsement could ignite a rocky relationship between the upper chamber and the president.
“If their candidate doesn’t win because of outside pressure,” Rounds said, “that may not be the healthiest thing for the president long term.”
Other senators told NOTUS the calculus on Trump endorsing was simple.
“He’ll speak up if he concludes it’s in his interests. He won’t if he doesn’t,” Sen. Mike Lee told NOTUS after a candidate forum Tuesday.
Trump’s command over the Republican Party is well-established. And his proclivity for throwing a Trump Tower-sized wrench into his party’s carefully laid plans, particularly during leadership races, is also well-documented. Whether Trump weighs in this time or not, GOP senators are keenly aware that the once-and-future president is watching the race closely.
Just this weekend, after Trump insisted that any prospective leader fast-track his nominations via the controversial tool of “recess appointments,” all three leader hopefuls — John Cornyn, John Thune and Rick Scott — agreed within hours.
But unlike House leadership elections, where public votes on the floor put member fealty to Trump on full display, the Senate’s GOP leadership elections are behind closed doors and done by secret ballot.
It’s one of the rare contests where Trump’s influence is limited. And at least a few senators are savoring that dynamic.
“He has the same rights as everybody to weigh in, but I don’t think it would be wise,” Cramer told NOTUS. “I just think it would smack of crossing the line of respect for separation of powers.”
Trump reportedly wants Scott to take over as Senate GOP leader. The president-elect has an opportunity to flex his muscles and back Scott tomorrow during a potential drop-in at the Senate, though the vote for leader is slated to start at 9:30 a.m. and Trump is supposed to be with House Republicans starting at 9 a.m.
Still, multiple senators told NOTUS they’re taking cues from Trump’s strongest supporters on social media, many of whom are backing Scott.
After Sen. Josh Hawley — who publicly supported Scott’s run for Senate GOP leader in 2022 — endorsed Cornyn late last week, Scott’s press team blasted out a list of endorsements from MAGA heavyweights like Elon Musk, Laura Loomer, Charlie Kirk, Benny Johnson and DC Draino, all with the message that Scott is the only candidate who would fully embrace Trump.
“There’s some subtle indications,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis told NOTUS of Trump’s not-so-subtle pro-Scott leanings.
Scott’s central pitch revolves around his relationship with Trump. As he left Tuesday night’s candidate forum, he summarized his argument. “My colleagues want change,” he told NOTUS. “They want somebody who has a relationship with Trump. They want the Trump agenda.”
Sen. Mike Braun, who was just elected governor and is not voting tomorrow, still endorsed Scott’s 2022 bid, saying the election results should point his former colleagues toward prioritizing Trump’s opinion.
“He’s going to get involved if he feels he needs to, because I think the mandate was given to him, not the Senate,” Braun said. “And I think they better pay attention to what his agenda is.”
While Scott has amassed the most outside support — and the most public endorsements from his colleagues — he’s hardly a lock for the position.
Scott’s hardline views and disappointing reign atop the Senate GOP’s campaign arm have long contributed to uneasiness about his leadership. (His insurgent bid against McConnell in 2022 was widely waved off as unserious; Senate aides pointed to Scott only getting 10 votes that year compared to McConnell’s 37 — an indication, these aides said, of the universe of support for the Florida Republican.)
As has been the case for the last year, Thune and Cornyn seem to be the more favored picks for leader. The two men have both served in the upper echelons of Senate GOP leadership. They are both prolific fundraisers. They both have a history of Trump skepticism. They both even have the same first name.
But more than sharing a first name with each other and a Gospel, their Trump skepticism can be particularly helpful for winning over other senators who have their own private doubts about Trump — just as long as it’s paired with the public obsequiousness that simultaneously makes Thune and Cornyn palatable to Trump diehards and other mainstream GOP voters.
Cramer said the similarities between the two men are so stark that it’s become a punchline.
“People are saying they’re a mirror image of each other,” he said. “To which I say, ‘I think John Thune would take offense to that.’”
That similarity presents a problem for the so-called “two Johns” given the Senate vote procedure. It functions like a closed-door runoff, where the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated until a majority is reached. That means Thune and Cornyn could split votes in the first round and pave the way for Scott to advance.
A Trump endorsement could give Scott an edge — and Scott’s supporters know it.
Sen. Ron Johnson told NOTUS he doesn’t just want Trump to weigh in, he wishes that Trump “would have done it already.”
But there’s also an even greater likelihood that a Trump endorsement could backfire. Even with Trump’s preference seeming obvious — as another Scott supporter, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, told NOTUS, “We know where he stands” — the vast majority of senators have kept their secret vote a secret.
Take Sen. James Lankford. He told NOTUS he had made up his mind, but joked that he would only disclose that he “can narrow it down to three people.”
That’s all a problem for Trump — and for Scott.
At a moment when senators are reading the tea leaves trying to decipher Trump’s leanings, they aren’t exactly falling over themselves to get into his good graces.
Senators emerging from the forum Tuesday night were generally positive about all the candidates, saying all three men seem generally aligned about the direction of the Senate GOP.
If Trump does endorse — and time is nearly out — Thune is the most likely of the three to feel the brunt. He’s the least connected to Trump, endorsing Tim Scott in the presidential primary, and Trump repeatedly called for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to primary Thune in 2022. (Noem, now reportedly Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Homeland Security, declined to challenge him.)
Meanwhile, Scott’s social media backers have been most directly attacking Thune (and even some of his family members).
But when it came to a Trump endorsement that could potentially reshape a race that’s been going on for nine months — or perhaps nine years, depending on who you ask — Thune had just four words to share.
“His call, not mine,” he said.
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Riley Rogerson is a reporter at NOTUS. Katherine Swartz, Claire Heddles and Casey Murray are NOTUS reporters and Allbritton Journalism Institute fellows.