Republicans spent hundreds of millions to retake the Senate and make GOP senators potentially matter more than ever next term. They were so successful that the two senators who frequently matter the most on big legislative questions — Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski — now might not matter at all.
At least when it comes to floor votes.
With a 53-vote majority, the most moderate members of the Senate GOP, Collins and Murkowski, won’t be the lone deciding votes next term. To have a say over legislative items like a reconciliation package, they will have to find two more Republicans to join them — and their dissenting voices, amplified for years because of their position in the middle, may be dampened to a whisper.
As Sen. Joe Manchin, the man perhaps most familiar with leveraging the deciding vote in the Senate, told NOTUS, “The tighter the margins, the more involvement you have.”
With a four-vote cushion, the margin may not be tight enough for the two senators to really have much involvement.
Of course, Collins and Murkowski are no strangers to that dynamic either. The two senators have spent a collective four decades navigating the upper chamber. The close allies are often invoked in the same breath. And they’ve earned their reputation as the two GOP senators most likely to buck the party.
Both support contraception and abortion access. Both voted against conservative Supreme Court nominees (thought both have also supported controversial Justices, including when Collins voted for Brett Kavanaugh). Both blocked Donald Trump’s effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. And both declined to endorse the president-elect. They are the two Republican senators who, according to GovTrack 2022 analysis, join the most bipartisan bills and have the most moderate voting record.
But with that 53-vote majority, there’s a math problem facing the two moderates. Complicating the problem is that virtually all of the Senate’s other traditional moderates — Sens. Mitt Romney, Kyrsten Sinema, Jon Tester and Manchin — won’t be around next year to operate in the middle with Collins and Murkowski.
Facing the prospect of a disappearing middle, is it possible the Senate’s last true moderate voices will be diminished next term?
To that question, Murkowski offered NOTUS a firm answer: “Only if you allow your voice to be diminished.”
For Murkowski, being steamrolled by the Trump administration and an increasingly sympathetic Senate isn’t part of her plan.
“In order to beat back the filibuster from Democrats, to enact your Republican agenda, you’re gonna have to have all your votes, right?” she explained. “You have to have your Republicans.”
“That gives people like me — even though I might not have supported Trump in the election — it gives me an opportunity to say, ‘Well, have you thought about this as a consideration?’” she continued. “It means that they’ve got to count their votes right if you’re going to try to avoid being blocked by the Democrats.”
Murkowski said the biggest difference for her next Congress won’t be the margins; it will be that her party holds the majority. Even the independent-minded, Trump-critical Murkowski sees that as a big plus.
“The biggest change is being able to help direct an agenda when you’re in the majority,” she said, “versus being responsive to an agenda that is set by others when you’re in the minority.”
Still, in the minority, Murkowski and Collins have had significant influence on key legislation. For the past four years that Democrats have controlled the Senate, the two senators were key dealmakers and reliable votes on bipartisan legislation.
They helped author the trillion-dollar infrastructure legislation that became law, directing billions to Alaska and Maine. They helped draft the first gun safety legislation in three decades. And they lent their votes to codify same-sex marriage. That willingness to compromise and collaborate helped soften the Biden administration to one of Murkowski’s main priorities: securing a federal permit for a massive oil development project in Alaska.
While there’s been plenty of hand-wringing over whether Murkowski will abandon her party to become an independent, she appears to be relishing the perks of the majority for now. She sees an opportunity to maneuver from the inside.
No, her vote might not single-handedly decide Supreme Court confirmations — as it has in the past — but Republicans will still need to play ball with her if they want to pass legislation that requires a 60-vote threshold. And she knows that.
So does Collins, who was bullish that her moderate voice will remain critical next term. If anything, she may have more leverage than ever while brandishing one of the most powerful gavels in Congress.
Collins told NOTUS the 53-vote margin “doesn’t change my role.”
“What will change my role is that I will be the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee,” she said.
“I’m going to take the same approach I’ve always done, reviewing issues and nominees and trying to make the best decisions that I can in the interests of the people of Maine and our country,” she told NOTUS. “That’s always been my approach, and it will continue to be.”
That’s not to say life in the Trump administration will be smooth for Collins and Murkowski.
Trump has called Collins “atrocious” and has dangled using his political clout to fund a primary challenge against her. Trump actually did back such a challenger and campaigned against Murkowski in 2022, dubbing her as “disloyal and a very bad Senator.”
If and when the two women want to block Trump, it’s not like they will have to worry about safeguarding any goodwill. They’ve already raised questions about a number of Trump cabinet picks, most notably Matt Gaetz, whom Murkowski called an “unserious” choice for attorney general.
In the case of that nomination, Collins and Murkowski are likely to find some allies. And they only need a few to block a nominee.
“Frankly, I think any four members can play a pivotal role,” one of the Republican lawmakers most likely to buck Trump, Sen. Thom Tillis, told NOTUS.
“I want Lisa and Susan to do the best that they can do to get reelected and represent the interests of Alaska and Maine,” he said. “And we have to have the patience and strategic sense to know that we don’t force people into purity votes here, unless you want to force us into a minority.”
But votes are only one way to gain points in the upper chamber. Collins and Murkowski also peddle in respect and seniority.
“Everybody respects the fact that when she makes a decision, it’s backed up,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis — a reliable conservative vote — said of Collins. “That doesn’t mean they agree with her, but they know that she’s formidable.”
And of Murkowski, Lummis told NOTUS, “She’s shown tremendous staying power.”
“They both have respect,” she said.
Meanwhile, Democrats are desperate for partners to stop the Trump administration’s to-do list. They know maintaining working relationships with Collins and Murkowski alone won’t get the job done. But multiple Democrats said they were prepared to work with them and a collection of strange Republican bedfellows.
“I’m open to talking to anyone,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal told NOTUS. “I’m hoping that there’ll be others besides the usual suspects.”
But if the usual suspects are Murkowski and Collins, many of the unusual suspects aren’t signaling that they’ll be reliable help to the Democrats.
Sen. Bill Cassidy has already signaled openness to confirming Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Retiring Leader Mitch McConnell once criticized Trump but has come to embrace most facets of the MAGA agenda. Sen. Todd Young held out on endorsing Trump but hardly has independent bona fides.
Still, if you take Manchin’s word for it, the independent streak is important. Collins and Murkowski have made both parties well aware that they are willing to play ball.
“Those two have always been fiercely independent,” Manchin said. “And I would say anytime you’re independent, you — in a very divided Congress that we have — do you have an awful lot to say about the outcome.”
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Riley Rogerson is a reporter at NOTUS.