Speaker Mike Johnson hoped he could push through the reconciliation bill Wednesday. But after a long delay in the House — a record-breaking, seven-and-a-half hour procedural vote — Republicans have run into another problem chewing up time: Conservative holdouts.
While Johnson could flip the holdouts at any moment, after hours of keeping a vote open that would put the reconciliation bill on the floor, there were still a handful of Republicans publicly opposed to the legislation, as well as an even larger group of conservative Republicans who had chosen not to vote at all.
After more than four hours of holding the rule vote open, the tally was stuck at 207-217, with five Republicans joining all Democrats in voting “no.” Another eight Republicans abstained from the vote.
With the exception of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who is one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress, all of the GOP “no” votes were from conservatives: Reps. Andrew Clyde, Thomas Massie, Keith Self and Victoria Spartz.
Johnson continues to believe that he — or President Donald Trump — will be able to flip some of the holdouts and put the bill back on track toward passage. But the speaker can only lose three GOP votes, and that’s if no other Republican abstains.
This vote is simply to set up floor consideration of the reconciliation bill. And while the vote now seems to serve as a proxy for the overall legislation — Massie told NOTUS he was voting “no” on the rule “because most of the world doesn’t understand the difference between a rule vote and final passage” — Johnson could actually have even more problems on the final vote.
Some vulnerable Republicans have said they would oppose the reconciliation bill if it includes a cut to the Medicaid provider tax. Some of those Republicans may still oppose the reconciliation package, though Trump and GOP leaders do seem to have made headway with those members.
The bill cuts more than $1 trillion from Medicaid — up from a $700 billion Medicaid cut in the original House bill — and would result in 11.8 million people losing their health coverage over the next decade.
But conservatives are still angry that the legislation doesn’t cut enough spending. The overall bill would increase the deficit by roughly $3.9 trillion over the next 10 years. And the measure violates the House’s budget instructions, which set a net tax cut number of $4 trillion paired with $1.5 trillion in spending cuts to offset the deficit impact.
Conservatives want adjustments to the legislation so that the bill falls in line with the deals they struck at earlier stages of reconciliation.
But there are also indications that these Freedom Caucus members will eventually fall in line.
Rep. Tim Burchett, one of the holdouts who hadn’t voted, told reporters after 1 a.m. that conservatives were “getting some things resolved” that would help them support the bill. But he didn’t say what, specifically, GOP leadership and the White House had offered conservatives to assuage their concerns.
When asked if he had spoken to Trump, Burchett just smirked. Throughout the night, however, leaders had ushered holdouts like Burchett in and out of side rooms on the floor, often holding a phone.
Around 2 a.m., Johnson told reporters, “This is going to end well.”
“We’re going to meet our July 4 deadline, which everybody made fun of me for saying,” Johnson said.
According to a source, the holdup now is just that House leaders are waiting for Rep. Scott Perry to come back from Pennsylvania before the holdouts change their votes.
Rep. Ralph Norman, a senior member of the Freedom Caucus, told reporters Wednesday night that, while members wanted specific assurances and information about the bill that they didn’t have at the moment, it was looking “very positive” that conservatives could eventually support the reconciliation bill.
Norman said the White House was making the case that amending the bill wouldn’t work out well for conservatives. It’s the administration’s position that the House changing the bill would result in a more moderate product when the measure goes back to the Senate.
Conservatives seem to be hearing that message, but the margin for passage is slim.
Massie has seemed completely immovable throughout the reconciliation process. Fitzpatrick immediately left the House floor after he voted against the rule — a signal that he may not be open to negotiating. Self posted on X late Wednesday night that “the only way of making this right is by leadership adhering to their commitments” and restoring three principles in the bill that Republicans don’t want to change.
Those three Republicans could be tough to win over, though other holdouts may prove even more difficult.
Leaders are hoping to simply accept the Senate’s legislation and avoid another round of legislative ping-pong between the two chambers.
Freedom Caucus members appeared to be nearing an understanding where they would support the bill with certain assurances on renewable energy tax credits and additional spending cuts. And the talks had given Johnson some hope as he headed to the floor Wednesday night.
The speaker told reporters Wednesday that it had been a “long, productive day.”
“We’ve been talking with members from across the conference and making sure that everyone’s concerns are addressed and their questions are answered,” Johnson said. “And it’s been a good day. We’re in a good place right now.”
But with the rule vote stalled and so many Republicans still opposed to the bill, Johnson needs something to change. Either it will be the minds of all but three of the holdouts, or it will have to be the bill itself.
The self-imposed July 4 deadline is fast-approaching. And while there’s no real consequence for Republicans blowing through the holiday, leaders believe giving holdouts more time to negotiate will only lead to firmer demands that the legislation be amended.
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Riley Rogerson and Reese Gorman are reporters at NOTUS.