As the House prepares for an uncertain speaker election on Friday, Mike Johnson’s fate rests on the whims of a few “undecided” Republicans.
In the hours leading up to the start of the 119th Congress, that was the word of the moment in Washington.
It’s the word that Rep. Tim Burchett had for NOTUS on Thursday. It’s the word that Rep. Chip Roy keeps using as he insists he’s not firmly anti-Johnson. And it’s the word Rep. Ralph Norman texted NOTUS to describe his position.
“Undecided!!” he said Wednesday evening, before reaffirming on Thursday that he will stay undecided until he and a group of Freedom Caucus holdouts meet with Johnson again.
“We’ll know tomorrow,” Norman told reporters as he left Johnson’s office on Thursday. “A day in politics is like a minute. It’s always changing.”
He added that “Mike is listening.”
“He’s a good listener or he wouldn’t have been there for the last hour,” Norman said.
Johnson spent much of Thursday working the phones and meeting with Freedom Caucus members who are on the fence.
“People are talking about process changes they want and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that, and I think tomorrow’s gonna go well,” Johnson told reporters after the meetings. “We need to stay unified so we can save the country, and I think that’s an important message.”
Publicly, some 15 Republican members are at least undecided on Johnson. Twelve of those have seemed doubtful, including Reps. Andy Biggs, Scott Perry and Andy Ogles. Two have demands for Johnson to win their vote: Reps. Victoria Spartz and House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris. And one is just a flat no: Rep. Thomas Massie.
For these Republicans, there’s an incentive to publicly remain “undecided” until the very last moment. By keeping their votes in play, the Republican lawmakers maximize their leverage to extract procedural and policy concessions from Johnson while enjoying the media attention that comes with that power.
Rep. Andy Ogles, a self-described “fiscal hawk,” told The Michael Patrick Leahy Show that he’s looking for Johnson to “give me his word that he’s going to execute this plan that he’s laying out” in order to get to “yes.”
But it’s also true that during Johnson’s 14-month stint atop the GOP conference, plenty of bad blood has festered. Conservatives have made no secret of their frustrations with Johnson’s procedural moves, his support for Ukraine aid and his habit of relying on Democrats to keep the government running, rather than deploying hard-line tactics to advance conservative priorities.
These Republicans are hungry for an ally in leadership — someone like Rep. Jim Jordan, the first Freedom Caucus chair, who Roy is reportedly shopping.
“We’ve got to have a course correction,” frequent Johnson skeptic Rep. Michael Cloud said this week on Newsmax. “Whether that comes with Speaker Johnson or whether that comes with a different speaker.”
Still, there’s an undeniable incentive for holdouts to bluff — and Johnson and his team are counting on all but Massie ultimately folding.
Two sources familiar with the Freedom Caucus’ thinking both told NOTUS they thought the conservative group would ultimately reach a deal with Johnson. The problem is Johnson has to reach a deal with every remaining Republican not named Thomas Massie. Because, in the 119th Congress, there are hardly any votes to spare.
The holdouts have both collective, big-picture asks regarding spending cuts and Johnson’s communication style and individual, more granular asks of the speaker that Johnson isn’t keen to ameliorate. For example, The Hill reported Thursday that Harris is openly frustrated that a bill preventing the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore from being renamed and dropping the requirement for a project labor agreement was not included in the December funding bill.
When the House meets to decide Johnson’s fate, 434 members are expected to be in the chamber; 219 will be Republicans.
To retain the gavel, Johnson needs the support of a majority of those voting. Democrats are expected to unanimously support Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, as they did in 2023. So, to win, Johnson can only lose one Republican vote.
Assuming Massie sticks to his guns in opposing Johnson, he’ll be that vote. The Kentucky Republican was giddy after helping take down one of Johnson’s government funding bills in December. Earlier in the year, he joined Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in attempting to vacate Johnson from the speakership.
But not only has Massie seemed unwavering in his refusal to support Johnson, he has seemed steadfast in his plan to support someone else. That means his vote will sting extra. Whereas Johnson could survive three Republicans simply sitting out the election, he can only withstand Massie voting “no” and one other Republican choosing not to vote.
Essentially, to find the number Johnson needs, take the total number of votes cast in the House and divide it by two. If the total number is an odd number (like, say, 433) round up to the next full integer to find the magic number (217). If the total number is even (like, say, 434) add a whole vote to find what Johnson needs (218).
The math may seem like a minor footnote in the annals of speaker vote history, but in the last decade, two Republican speakers won the gavel with less than a majority of the full House: John Boehner in 2015 and Kevin McCarthy in 2023. Both won with 216 votes and were helped by some members voting “present,” which functionally lowers the threshold needed to win by half a vote.
But only a few Republican members can use the strategy. Too many “present” votes would hand the gavel to Jeffries.
Whether a Republican votes for a named candidate or votes “present” may seem arbitrary, but it’s of grave importance for Johnson. And just as consequential is another arbitrary fact about the election: the alphabet.
Members will vote alphabetically, and if Johnson gets some early opposition — say, from Biggs, Rep. Lauren Boebert and Burchett — it could set off more opposition from the capricious GOP conference. A few no votes, which could be manageable for Johnson to persuade in further ballots, could quickly snowball to an insurmountable deficit.
Conversely, it may be far more difficult for Spartz or Roy to vote against Johnson if only Massie has voted against the speaker, though all three lawmakers have almost made a sport out of going against the grain.
Johnson has seemed to have problems for most of the last year — particularly after the Ukraine aid vote, when Democrats saved him from removal — but his job security has fluctuated greatly since Election Day.
On Nov. 16, he attended a UFC fight in Madison Square Garden with Trump, Elon Musk, and other Trumpworld heavyweights. On Dec. 18, Musk led the online charge that torpedoed the continuing resolution that Johnson negotiated with Democratic leadership. Amid the chaos, Trump began to doubt that Johnson was the right man for the job, as NOTUS previously reported.
Although Johnson eventually succeeded in preventing a government shutdown, the fallout from the bungled funding attempts has hardly dissipated. Still, on Monday, after some consideration, Trump endorsed Johnson, saying he’s a “good, hard working, religious man.”
The Trump endorsement moved the needle with some frequent Johnson skeptics. Reps. Troy Nehls and Josh Breechen pledged their support, citing allegiance to Trump. As did Reps. Paul Gosar and Warren Davidson — both of whom voted with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene to oust Johnson in May.
“President Trump wants Speaker Johnson,” Davidson posted Thursday on X. “To quote General Patton: ‘A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.’”
Then there’s Greene, a consistent antagonist to Johnson who said after Election Day that she would support him as speaker. She doubled down Thursday night, calling for the Republican conference to unite behind Johnson.
Rep. Brandon Gill, the freshman class president, also promised his support, saying, since Trump wants Johnson, “Mike’s the guy!” Rep. Nancy Mace — one of the eight members who ousted McCarthy — told NOTUS on Thursday that she’s also a “yes.”
Johnson allies see that movement as a positive sign. The speaker told Fox News on Thursday that he has been working the phones to persuade his detractors to back him, floating “process reforms” and emphasizing that his leadership style would look different during a unified government, calling it a “brand new paradigm.”
“Things trending in the right direction,” one of Johnson’s House GOP allies texted NOTUS, while noting that the election outcome was still “too early to tell.”
The optimism in Johnson’s circles has its limits, however. CNN reported on Thursday that Johnson’s allies are preparing for multiple rounds of votes.
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Ben T.N. Mause is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
Riley Rogerson is a reporter at NOTUS.
Katherine Swartz is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.