As Republicans remain at an impasse over some major reconciliation hurdles — namely, the state and local tax deduction and cuts to Medicaid and food benefits — a group of vulnerable and moderate Republicans met with House Speaker Mike Johnson Tuesday to try to find some compromises.
Johnson is already facing blowback from the more moderate wing of the conference on yet-to-be-written provisions in the reconciliation bill. These Republicans insist the House shouldn’t make substantial cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, particularly if the Senate is just going to strip those reductions anyway.
But if Johnson completely throws in the towel on those controversial cuts, he’s sure to face stiff opposition from the more conservative factions of the GOP conference.
It has left the speaker trying to find a balance.
“We’ve been working really hard to take all the input and find that kind of equilibrium point where everyone’s at least satisfied,” Johnson said in a press conference Tuesday morning.
The question is whether that “equilibrium point” exists — and whether there’s one side in the Republican conference that’s willing to accept more of a compromise than the other.
Johnson referenced the “equilibrium point” at a lunch with members of the Republican Governance Group on Tuesday. Many of the group’s members have been most vocally in support of Medicaid.
“I can’t count equilibrium; I can count numbers,” Rep. David Joyce said of Johnson’s comments. “I don’t need anyone to explain the numbers. I just need to see them. So I’m just waiting ‘til we get that.”
Rep. Nick Langworthy, one of just a couple members who sits on Energy and Commerce and has also been outspoken about Medicaid, compared the process of getting in agreement to “landing a plane on the head of a pin.”
“If you’re gonna pass it with 218 votes, it’s going to have to be an equilibrium to some extent,” Langworthy told NOTUS.
“It’s all about balance, not everyone’s going to get what they want,” he added. “Any three people that stick together can tank the bill.”
Three pivotal committees stand in the way of members getting those numbers. Markups for Energy and Commerce, Agriculture and Ways and Means were all pushed back to the week of May 12. Those committees handle Medicaid, SNAP and SALT, respectively, where details are still being ironed out.
“The only thing that’s in for sure is waste, fraud and abuse, and nothing’s out at this point,” Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee Chair Buddy Carter told NOTUS. “There’s a lot still left to discuss.”
There’s plenty out for the moderates, though.
Most won’t accept changes to the rate the federal government pays on traditional Medicaid, the formula known as the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage or FMAP. The federal government pays a higher rate in states with lower per capita incomes.
“FMAP changes seem to be off the table,” Langworthy said. “I don’t see anyone that really believes that there’s a path to 218 on anything like that.”
Johnson confirmed to reporters following the meeting that an FMAP adjustment is off the table. That’s already angering hardline conservatives, who pushed leadership in April for at least $1.5 trillion in cuts.
“Well - I haven’t ruled it out,” Rep. Chip Roy tweeted in response to Johnson’s comments.
The conversation in Johnson’s office with about 18 members centered around three buckets members do agree can be addressed: instituting work requirements for able-bodied adults, moving Medicaid registration from every 12 months to every 6 months and barring undocumented immigrants from receiving benefits.
“We just keep bringing the conversation back to those three,” Rep. Juan Ciscomani said while leaving Johnson’s office Tuesday evening. “I’m not feeling pushed to go beyond that at this point, but we have to agree on the amount that we’re talking about as well.”
Rep. Nick LaLota also emphasized the same three buckets, which he previously told NOTUS totaled $370 billion in savings over 10 years — well below the $880 billion threshold in the framework.
“If the proposed reform leads to intended beneficiaries losing their coverage, it’s a cut. We have to be intellectually honest with each other, that if that’s what the reform ends up doing, that to me is a cut,” LaLota told NOTUS before the meeting.
Others are less forthcoming about what they won’t accept.
“I can’t talk about red lines,” Rep. Gabe Evans said. “How am I gonna negotiate if I lay out all my cards?”
Separate from the meeting with Johnson, other Republicans are making it clear they won’t tolerate benefit cuts for vulnerable populations, despite Johnson repeatedly insisting he won’t make those cuts.
Rep. Zach Nunn, alongside Reps. Don Bacon and Derrick Van Orden, introduced a point of order resolution on Monday that would prevent the House from taking up a reconciliation resolution that cuts Medicaid or SNAP for children, seniors, pregnant women and people with disabilities.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday afternoon, Van Orden insisted Republicans wouldn’t touch Medicaid or SNAP. Anyone who said otherwise, he said, was “fear mongering” and “frankly despicable.”
Of course, when asked why he would cosponsor a symbolic resolution that would be unnecessary if what he said was true, Van Orden suggested there may be some truth to the fears.
He said he put his name on the proposal, “So my Republican colleagues better know that I’m not screwing around.”
“That’s a shot over the bow to any Republican that thinks they’re going to stick their fingers in that pie,” he said. “It ain’t happening.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are moving forward with an effort to force a vote on a bill that would prevent Medicaid and SNAP cuts through a discharge petition.
Democrats have been railing against Republican efforts to cut government spending to offset the cost of President Donald Trump’s massive budget bill — and this effort is the latest sign they’re going to continue to put the spotlight on these negotiations.
Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, as well as Budget Committee Ranking Democrat Brendan Boyle and Agriculture Committee Ranking member Angie Craig, told reporters during a press conference on Tuesday that Democrats only need “four Republicans” to join the effort, though it’s really five because the discharge petition needs 218 signatures and there are 213 Democrats in the House.
“It’s an all-hands-on-deck effort to make sure we protect the health care of the American people, as well as prevent Republicans from literally snatching food from the mouth of hungry children, veterans and seniors,” Jeffries said.
Separately, Jeffries was asked whether Democrats would get behind Nunn, Van Orden and Bacon’s effort. Jeffries suggested Democrats wouldn’t back it because the effort wouldn’t kick in — because of House procedure — until after Memorial Day, which is Johnson’s self-imposed deadline for passing the reconciliation bill in the House anyway.
“It’s not a serious effort,” Jeffries said. “If the Republican speaker says he’s aiming to get this done by Memorial Day, the only serious effort to actually stop Medicaid and SNAP cuts from going into effect is the discharge petition that is live now on the House floor.”
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Katherine Swartz is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow. Daniella Diaz, who is a reporter at NOTUS, contributed to this report.