Since their lackluster election performance last November, Democrats have been struggling to find a message that will motivate voters and propel their party back to power.
They may have finally found it.
Democrats would have preferred that the Republican reconciliation bill not become law. But now that it has, lawmakers are seeing plenty of opportunities to message on the potential effects of the legislation.
“It’s not very complicated. Prices are going up because of them,” Sen. Brian Schatz told NOTUS. “We’re not excellent at messaging, but this one we can do.”
Schatz said Democrats are “100%” unified behind that message.
“We have our own internal squabbles, but none of us like Medicaid cuts. None of us want to see the rural hospitals go. None of us want to take away food from children,” he said.
Sen. Ruben Gallego, who seems to be flirting with a presidential run, made many of the same points.
“Any time you can point out that a party, in particular the Republican Party, has decided to throw people off of their health care and take away food from people’s mouths in order to give the richest of America a tax cut, you’re going to have a very unified message and a very unified party behind it,” Gallego told NOTUS.
Since their losses last November, Democrats have been looking for a unified message — something they’ve struggled to find.
The “squabbles” Schatz referred to have ranged from whether to let the government shut down as a show of Trump resistance, which generation should be in the top rungs of Democratic leadership, what kinds of candidates the national party should support, and to what extent they should shift to the center on policies like transgender rights and immigration.
But with the Republican megabill, which passed the Senate and House last week, Democrats have a coherent message: This is what we’re not.
The Medicaid provisions in the law are predicted to result in 11.8 million people losing their health insurance over the next decade — on top of another 5 million who are projected to lose coverage over expiring tax credits. The Medicaid cuts are also expected to result in a $1.1 trillion federal funding hole that the U.S. health care system will have to fill. Rural hospitals could close. Doctors could be tougher to find. And costs could go up.
On top of those consequences, food benefits will also be tougher to get. Clean energy tax credits will end. And the overwhelming majority of the tax benefits in the bill will go to the top 10% of households. (According to a distributional analysis from the University of Pennsylvania, the top 10% will receive 80% of the total value of the legislation, while the lowest quintile will lose money.)
But even for the households that are winners, most won’t feel much of any effect. The majority of the cost of the bill is attributable to an extension of current tax rates, meaning people won’t necessarily see more money — they just won’t see less.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and Republicans are raising expectations and touting huge cuts in the bill that are barely there, like “no tax on Social Security” (it just creates a temporary, income-based bonus tax deduction for some), “no tax on tips” (up to $25,000 worth of tips a year) and “no tax on overtime” (up to $12,500).
It all amounts to some powerful material for Democrats, who aim to pitch themselves as the party of working people — after losing ground with that demographic over the last decade.
The reconciliation bill covers so many topics, hitting on so many politically damaging themes, Democrats say, that it gives them a full menu of issues to run against Republicans next year.
“They have passed a law that will gut America’s health care system, raise the cost of health care for tens of millions of American families, throw millions of Americans off their health insurance in order to cut taxes, mostly for the rich,” Sen. Jon Ossoff told NOTUS.
He added that he thinks Republicans, like those in the Freedom Caucus, who voted for the bill after years of complaining about fiscal responsibility, are “weaklings who folded after being offered a Big Mac on Air Force One.”
For Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the reconciliation bill stands in the face of “the heart of what Democrats fight for.”
“Republicans believe government should be run for the billionaires, and they’re living that every day,” Warren told NOTUS. “Democrats believe government should be run for all of us and to create opportunity, not just for kids born into wealth, but for all our kids. That’s who we are.”
Already, Democrats are seeing some positive political signs as a result of the legislation.
In the first 48 hours after the House passed the bill, Democrats had their second-best two-day stretch of online fundraising for the year, bringing in nearly 14,000 donors and raising more than $356,000, according to data that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shared with NOTUS.
Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the DCCC, told NOTUS the law will be “the defining issue of the midterms.”
“Every day between now and the election, the DCCC will communicate the harm this bill will cause and uplift stories of the everyday Americans negatively impacted,” Shelton said in a statement. “We’ll do this through social media, paid communications and mobilizing voters to hold vulnerable Republicans accountable for abandoning their central promise to voters by passing the largest cut to health care in American history to pay for tax breaks for billionaires.”
Throughout the reconciliation process, Democrats have particularly focused on the effect of Medicaid cuts.
The DCCC launched a slate of digital ads against vulnerable House Republicans this week, their first ads of the election cycle, and the commercials call out individual members. Because of their support, the ads claim, “rural hospitals across America are now at risk of closing.”
Just a couple weeks out from their August recess, several Democratic senators said they’re setting up constituent meetings and listening sessions focused on the bill — particularly in rural areas where Democrats have struggled and where the legislation’s impact may be most felt.
Sen. Tim Kaine told NOTUS he has health care-focused round tables planned in rural Virginia this weekend.
“And I’m gonna hear an earful,” Kaine said.
Rural communities are especially a focus of outreach for Democrats; there’s a provision in the new law that will gradually decrease the ability of states to tax their hospitals, which will shift more of the burden of Medicaid funding onto states and make it harder for struggling rural hospitals to make ends meet.
The Senate added a $50 billion fund for rural hospitals, in light of pushback from a range of Republicans. But the Medicaid provider tax changes and other cuts to the program are still expected to create higher premiums and eligibility losses for millions.
Vermont Sen. Peter Welch said he’s particularly concerned about rural hospitals dealing with opioid addiction. He told NOTUS he’s actively meeting with community hospitals to discuss the challenge.
“Rural America has made some significant progress on reducing opioid addiction, which has been a real challenge,” Welch said. “Medicaid funding has been very instrumental and my fear is that the cuts to Medicaid is going to set us back on the progress we’ve made on opioid addiction.”
Sen. Ben Ray Luján told NOTUS the Democratic strategy on the legislation is already working.
He cited data that showed a majority of voters oppose the bill. And Luján said the more voters learn about the law, the more they dislike it.
“With that level of opposition, with the high number of people that are familiar with what it is, I think it speaks for itself,” he said.
Voters in his state of New Mexico, which expanded Medicaid under a Republican governor, are already paying attention, Luján said. He pointed out other states that are already seeing closures of rural health systems.
“A state like New Mexico, this is terribly unpopular to constituents, and they know what this means to them,” he said. “On top of that, rural grocery stores, rural health centers, there will be closures. What I’m surprised by is, there are already headlines.”
There’s reason to believe such a health care-focused message could help bring about Democratic victories.
Sen. Andy Kim compared the current Democratic health care message to his own winning strategy in 2018, when he narrowly flipped a Republican House district. At that time, Kim’s campaign tied the incumbent to his support for an unpopular GOP bill to replace the Affordable Care Act.
“That was our unified message at that time, that was something that allowed me to do a 21-point flip, win by one point, and win a district that nobody thought was on the table,” Kim told NOTUS. “So I think it’s very potent, and I feel the same energy right now.”