Democratic candidate Bob Harvie’s campaign is touting new internal numbers that show him tied with incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in a hypothetical two-way race for Pennsylvania’s 1st congressional district.
Democrats are eager to flip the seat during what they hope will be a competitive midterm cycle. Fitzpatrick is one of the few Republicans that managed to win in a district also won by former Vice President Kamala Harris, outpacing President Donald Trump by seven points. He has repeatedly received more than 50% of the vote in 2024, 2022 and 2020, according to data from The New York Times.
The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling between Oct. 10 and 11, shows the two candidates tied at 41% to 41%, with 19% of likely voters undecided, according to a memo from Harvie’s campaign.
Harvie, a Bucks County Commissioner, told NOTUS the poll shows he is a viable candidate against Fitzpatrick who has been in office since 2017.
“Brian Fitzpatrick has never faced a countywide elected official before, and this county makes up 90% of the district,” Harvie said. “The fact that I’ve won two elections in the past six years countywide means that I’m a candidate that he has to take seriously.”
The poll, which has a 4.1% margin of error, surveyed 585 people who will likely vote in the 2026 general election in the district.
The National Republican Congressional Committee called the internal poll “bogus,” saying that Fitzpatrick has consistently overperformed Trump in the district. An NRCC spokesman, Reilly Richardson, called Harvie “corrupt” and “too extreme for Pennsylvania.”
“Meanwhile,” the statement said, “Brian Fitzpatrick has spent years delivering bipartisan wins and over performing in PA-01 and will continue to do so for years to come.”
There is some reason to believe that Democrats could see a better performance in the district this cycle, including national political headwinds that historically benefit the party out of power during midterms.
Harvie said he holds an advantage over Fitzpatrick’s previous challengers, in particular with regard to his name identification in the district. He won countywide office twice in 2019 and 2023.
According to the poll, 43% of respondents said they could rate Harvie — 26% said they approve of him, while 17% disapprove. Polling by Fitzpatrick’s campaign in 2024 found nearly two-thirds of voters had never heard of his last challenger, Ashley Ehasz.
According to the poll, 57% of the likely voters in the district want to see Fitzpatrick do more to stand up to Trump.
Fitzpatrick has broken with Trump throughout his congressional tenure, including as the lone House Republican vote against the GOP’s sweeping reconciliation bill in July. A study from the conservative Institute for Legislative Analysis released this week found that Fitzpatrick breaks with Trump more frequently than any other House Republican.
The poll shows Harvie holds a 61% lead with Democratic voters and a 3% lead among independents. Fitzpatrick has a 60% lead with Republicans.
The survey also shows Fitzpatrick’s approval rating at 32%, with 47% disapproving. Trump has a 45% approval rating, with 52% disapproving. Forty-two percent believe the country is on the right track, while 56% believe it is on the wrong track.
The poll also found that 48% of respondents blamed Trump and Republicans for the ongoing government shutdown, while 42% blamed congressional Democrats.
An October poll from Franklin & Marshall College found that Democratic House candidates have a five-point lead over Republican House candidates. But the Cook Political Report rates Fitzpatrick’s seat as “likely Republican” heading into 2026.
Republicans heavily criticized Harvie’s poll as statistically implausible to NOTUS. Chris Pack, who runs the pro-Fitzpatrick Defending America PAC, noted that Harvie has not yet released his third-quarter fundraising totals.
“Bob Harvie is clearly bracing for another dismal fundraising quarter if he’s resorting to peddling a bullshit push poll that blatantly contradicts itself,” Pack said in a statement. “Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick has consistently outperformed Republicans up and down the ticket, and Harvie’s poll is an insult to the intelligence of anyone with half a brain, apparently with the exception of the NOUTS [sic] editors who are thirstier for clicks than they are for credibility.”
After this story was published, Harvie published his Federal Election Commission filings for the third quarter of 2025, showing his cash on hand at $231,000. Fitzpatrick’s filings showed him with over $6.9 million cash on hand.
Harvie told NOTUS he is optimistic about his chances.
“One of the things in terms of raising money is name recognition,” Harvie said. “The fact that I’ve got 43% name ID already, you know, I don’t quite need as much of that. The horse race that’s going to matter is who wins next November. So we’re going to keep raising funds to do the things we need to do to win this campaign.”