Republicans Say Trump Turning on Incumbents Makes Keeping Their Majority Harder

President Donald Trump is letting loose against Senate Republican incumbents — creating headaches for chamber leadership and leaving vulnerable lawmakers to fend against the president’s ire.

In a matter of months, Trump has turned on Sen. Bill Cassidy (who’s facing a strong primary challenger), Sen. Susan Collins (who the president said should “never be elected again”) and Sen. Thom Tillis (who’s since opted for retirement), all of whom were or are up for reelection in 2026. Trump has also refused to help embattled Sen. John Cornyn, who’s facing a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, despite open pleas from Republicans for the president to endorse the sitting incumbent.

“The president gets to do whatever he wants,” Sen. Rick Scott said. “He has people that he knows — he believes — are going to support his agenda. People endorse people they think are going to vote with them.”

Senate Republican leadership has steadfastly supported all of their incumbents and, with their majority on the line, don’t want to leave anything to chance. Leaders are warning that drawn-out primaries would cost the GOP loads more cash that could otherwise be used in general elections.

But that hasn’t deterred Trump, who is happy to keep lobbing insults at senators whose votes he may someday need.

The Texas Republican primary is already one of the ugliest nominating contests in the nation, and it’s just around the corner on March 3rd. Trump says he may still weigh in on the race, and a boost from him would undoubtedly help Cornyn. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has repeatedly cited concerns that the scandal-plagued Paxton would make the general election far more expensive and difficult to win. When asked by a reporter last week why Trump won’t listen to him and get behind Cornyn, Thune replied: “I’m probably not the right person to ask that question.”

Other members of Senate GOP leadership have publicly stood behind their targeted colleagues. Trump’s endorsement against Cassidy and for Rep. Julia Letlow in that primary came as a surprise to many of them. But Trump’s ability to hold a grudge is long, and Cassidy voted in favor of convicting Trump during his second impeachment trial.

“I give my support to Sen. Cassidy,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito told NOTUS. “We came in together. We served in the House together. I think a lot of that for us has already been determined, that we’re going to back our fellow senator. I wouldn’t say everybody. But it came as a surprise to me.”

The recent spree from Trump has been a shift. During the 2024 cycle, he backed candidates in close alignment with Senate leadership and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which was then led by Sen. Steve Daines. The NRSC at the time also made a point of picking its favored candidates in open primaries, a shift from previous cycles. In 2022, then-NRSC Chair Rick Scott, a close Trump ally, refused to interfere in nominating contests — costing them seats like in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock beat Republican candidate Herschel Walker.

Scott currently leads the NRSC, which has continued to back incumbents this cycle but is trying to tip the scales more aggressively in some states. In the Texas race, the NRSC has been openly hostile toward Paxton. In the Louisiana race, a state where Republicans are much less likely to lose to Democrats, its response has been more tepid.

“It’s a huge mistake,” Tillis told NOTUS. “I don’t like spreading out our money. Now, we’re going to be wasting money in general elections because we’ve got a conference at odds with the president.”

Some Republicans insist the president is merely tired of dealing with wishy-washy members. Tillis voted against Republicans’ marquee reconciliation package due to Medicaid cuts. Cassidy has voiced serious concerns over some of the administration’s health policy agenda, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decisions as Health and Human Services secretary, though he ultimately voted to confirm him. Collins has been a swing vote on a number of Trump policy items and nominees over his two terms.

Cornyn and Trump, meanwhile, have less evident beef, but Cornyn has worked on a handful of bipartisan policies and has had occasional words against the president that have fueled conservative ire against him.

“He’s getting to a point where he’s probably frustrated he’s not getting the support that he thinks he deserves,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville said.

When asked how he thinks leadership should handle the split between themselves and Trump, Tuberville said it’s up to leadership. “They talk all the time, so it’s just hard because, again, the president of the United States is somebody that’s got a lot of pull.”

“With President Trump’s endorsement, the primary is over,” Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said in a statement to NOTUS. “The Democrats desperately want to run against Ken Paxton with his documented track record of professional and personal failures and corruption. Only Senator Cornyn takes Texas off the Senate map.”

When NOTUS asked Tillis why he thinks the president is turning on people now, he replied: “He was probably being smart. If he turned against them two years ago, they’d be a little bit more free agency, right?”

That free agent risk is already proving true — with Tillis himself. The North Carolina senator has notably shifted his rhetoric against the president in recent months and is obstructing some of the president’s most critical nominees from moving forward, among other efforts. And there’s a sense among Republicans that other Trump-shunned senators could be next, given they don’t see a way to appease the president.

Still, most Senate Republicans are keeping cordial with Trump. Though they’re not promising to fall in line, either.

“The president will have to do what he has to do,” Sen. Chuck Grassley told reporters. “We’re going to do what we’re doing to protect the integrity of the United States Senate Republican majority. And keeping incumbents in office is easier than having open seats.”