These 2026 Primaries Could Define the Democratic and Republican Parties’ Futures

Republicans and Democrats are already locked in a vigorous fight to see which party will control the House majority after 2026, recruiting candidates and fine-tuning messages ahead of what is expected to be a fierce midterm election.

But before either party reaches the general election, they have to wade through their own primaries, which will test President Donald Trump’s hold on the party, the strength of insurgent Democrats and whether centrists can hang on.

Below are five House primaries likely to make headlines in 2026.

Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, Republican primary

Rep. Thomas Massie’s reelection fight in this northeastern Kentucky district will be the ultimate test of whether Republican voters will embrace a politician who openly and proudly defies Trump. Massie has repeatedly done so this year, most notably when he pushed for the release of all federal files related to infamous convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein despite White House resistance.

Trump has responded by vowing to defeat Massie, recruiting former Navy Seal Ed Gallrein to run and ordering his political team set up a super PAC dedicated to unseating the incumbent. It’s an extraordinary effort from the president to take on a member of his own party, and it is easily the most severe electoral challenge Massie has faced since first winning election in 2012.

The 4th District is a deep red seat in a general election, and Massie himself holds strictly conservative views on many issues aligned with the tea party movement that first helped elect him more than a decade ago. If he wins the mid-May primary, however, it’ll be a sign that the president’s once-absolute hold on his party might be slipping as he enters the final years of his presidency.

California’s 22nd Congressional District, Democratic primary

Democrats are confident they can win the left-leaning Central Valley district represented by Republican Rep. David Valadao, buoyed by what they hope is a midterm backlash to Trump and a redistricting process that moved the seat a notch more Democratic. But first, the party needs to select a nominee — and overcome a brewing battle between its centrist and liberal wings.

Much of the Democratic Party’s establishment has lined up behind Jasmeet Bains, a member of the California State Assembly considered by some to be the most electable candidate against the battle-tested Valadao. But her moderate brand of politics has angered some progressives, who have rallied behind Randy Villegas, a college professor who supports the implementation of a single-payer health care system. Villegas has become a favorite of some national liberal activists, gaining support from the leftist Working Families Party and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Democrats in Washington see the California district as a race the party needs to win amid a strong political environment in next year’s midterm, so expect a vigorous debate over which candidate has the best chance to win a general election. Liberals will be out to prove that their brand of politics has support even in moderate, Hispanic-heavy districts, the type of area they have struggled with in the past.

Illinois’ 9th Congressional District, Democratic primary

The joke among Democratic strategists is that a thousand candidates are running in this deep-blue seat that runs through the northern Chicago suburbs, held by retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky. The truth isn’t that far off: More than 10 candidates in the district had already raised more than $100,000 for their campaigns by October, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

A broad field of candidates, however, is poised to be a hallmark of many Democratic primaries next year, amid a surge of candidates running across the board. It means that in some races, the winning candidate might not need to win even 20% of the total vote, a dynamic with significant implications for candidates as they decide how to engage with voters and spend their campaign resources. More traditional campaigns aimed at a broad swath of voters, for instance, might be less effective than targeted operations that seek to win over a small but concentrated group of voters.

Adding to complication in this primary is that it will be held early in the year, on March 17, and features candidates across the party’s ideological spectrum. Liberal former journalist Kat Abughazaleh is the best-known candidate nationally, but she faces well-funded challengers including Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and state Sen. Laura Fine.

California’s 40th Congressional District, Republican primary

Member vs. member primaries are often among the most combative, and another might be brewing in this suburban Los Angeles seat. Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are now running against each other after California undertook its mid-decade redistricting process, putting the two members in the same new right-leaning district.

Primaries that pit two sitting lawmakers against each other always draw increased interest from other members, and this race is no different. Rep. Darrell Issa of California was caught on a hot mic earlier this year suggesting that Kim, who is almost a decade younger than Calvert, should step aside and let him win the nomination. But Kim will also have supporters within the GOP, as a battle-tested member of a formerly competitive seat who capitalized on the party’s recent gains with Asian American voters.

Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District, Democratic primary

Many longtime Democratic House members face a tougher-than-usual primary test next year against younger or more liberal challengers, including Reps. Dan Goldman of New York, Bennie Thompson of Mississippi and John Larson of Connecticut. The race that might ultimately draw the most national interest, however, is a Memphis House seat long represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen.

The incumbent, who has held office since 2007, faces a primary from Justin Pearson, a state representative who rose to prominence after being temporarily expelled from the Tennessee state House in 2023. He’s now a favorite of national leftist groups like Justice Democrats, which hopes it can elect a new slate of young Democrats next year that makes the party younger and pushes it to the political left.