Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan lost his race for a Senate seat just six months ago, in a cycle when President Donald Trump won the state.
But Rogers is already back, launching a new Senate bid this week with the support of leading Republicans in Washington. It’s a quick turnaround, banking on a sentiment Republican operatives in the state echo: hope that this cycle will be different.
“It is a completely different race,” Michigan GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe, who’s not backing a particular candidate at the moment, told NOTUS.
“Some of the criticisms or skepticism that have been expressed so far are kind of missing the mark on the timing, the resources and the realities of the race last year,” he added.
Although Rogers lost by 0.3 percentage points while Trump won Michigan by 1.4 percentage points, Republicans argue it was a matter of circumstance. To hear them tell it, now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin was a uniquely formidable competitor; Rogers had to slog through a tense Republican primary that put a drag on his general election campaign. Voters often undervote in presidential elections, leaving down-ballot candidates out to dry.
The left dubbed Rogers a carpetbagger and a corporate sellout. And the far-right questioned how closely aligned he was with Trump, whom Rogers had criticized in the past.
But this cycle, incumbent Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, sparking an open primary on the Democratic side that’s likely to cost millions. And Rogers is leading the Republican nomination field — and could clear it — though Rep. Bill Huizenga is still considering a bid and former GOP gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon has shown some interest.
Still, by launching early, there’s hope that Rogers can mount a ground game with plenty of time to spare before next November, should he win the nomination. He could get on air early, something he didn’t do in 2024, and more time would mean more opportunities to fundraise.
That hope was evident this week when national Republican operatives including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee threw their weight behind Rogers.
Michigan is one of the Senate GOP’s top pickup opportunities this cycle, right next to Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for reelection.
“Mike Rogers is the conservative leader that Michigan needs in the U.S. Senate,” Thune said in a statement after Rogers launched Monday. “We need him in the U.S. Senate to help achieve President Trump’s America First agenda and to bring manufacturing and good-paying jobs back to Michigan.”
After publication, Alyssa Brouillet, spokesperson for Mike Rogers for Senate, sent NOTUS a statement saying, “While the fractured Democrat party battles amongst itself in a race to the left, Mike Rogers has received overwhelming party support right out the gate.”
“This early and unified support means that Mike can focus on voters, rather than primary competitors, and regarding the issues they care about most: bringing back manufacturing jobs, lowering costs, protecting social security, and strengthening national security,” Brouillet said.
If you ask Republican operatives what Rogers needs to change this cycle, they don’t think there’s much. The race was so close last time, they say, he can just roll the dice again with a similar playbook.
“I don’t think he needs to really shift strategy,” said one strategist who has worked on multiple Michigan Senate campaigns. “When you get down to that point, you’re talking about one different ad buy, or did an ad start a week later, a week early.”
What’s more, running a second Senate campaign immediately after his first means Rogers has some lasting name recognition that he won’t have to pay for this time around.
“A lot of the money he spent in ’24 on introducing himself, you won’t have to this time,” said the same strategist. “He can spend more of that on specific messages and going on offense.”
That is all, of course, an about-face from the way Democrats see it. They say Rogers’ 2024 loss was a direct referendum on him as a candidate rather than a matter of happenstance. Rogers was, after all, a congressman in the state for 14 years, making him a known quantity to many voters. He left in 2015 after opting to forgo reelection.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a statement that “Michiganders have already rejected Mike Rogers and his record of abandoning them to walk through the revolving door and get rich, threatening Social Security and Medicare to pay for a tax giveaway for billionaires, and supporting the chaotic tariffs that will spike costs for families.”
“No Republican has won a Michigan Senate race for more than three decades and Democrats will hold this seat in 2026,” Coyle said. (The last Republican senator from Michigan was Spencer Abraham, who lost his 2000 reelection bid against Democrat Debbie Stabenow.)
But in a reversal from last cycle, the Democratic primary is poised to be a competitive one. State senator Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed have already launched their bids. Rep. Haley Stevens and former state House Speaker Joe Tate are also considering runs.
“I don’t view them as someone like Slotkin who was able to portray herself as much more as a moderate than any of these candidates probably can,” said the Republican strategist.
Roe said that “Slotkin was up on the air in the spring” and working on “defining herself.”
“Mike was very haphazardly on the air when he could afford to be and when he needed to be,” Roe said, adding that “real resources didn’t flow into the campaign until after Labor Day.”
Michigan’s congressional primaries generally don’t occur until August of the election year. That can put a delay on national party involvement and a damper on fundraising.
Still, local Republican officials say they’re spotting some differences with Rogers this go around.
Lori Skibo, chair of the Michigan Republican Party’s 9th District, told NOTUS that she has spoken with Rogers and that he’s planning to involve district chairs in his campaign more than last time.
“He is making an effort to engage more closely with MRP district chairs this cycle,” Skibo wrote in an email. “That’s a positive step, especially considering the many party delegates who gave their time and energy in 2024 to support his campaign.”
Rogers lost by about 19,000 votes, an amount national Republican operatives see as more than surmountable.
“Michigan Democrats are going to spend the next year fighting amongst themselves about who in their primary will fight harder to let males play in girls’ sports or against the deportation of criminal illegal aliens,” NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez wrote in a statement.
“Meanwhile, Republicans are united behind Mike Rogers and ready to fight for Michiganders by restoring American manufacturing and unleashing American energy,” she said.
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Helen Huiskes is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow. Ursula Perano is a reporter at NOTUS.