With the GOP’s Texas Senate primary already getting nasty, many Republicans are nervous that Sen. John Cornyn can only beat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton if President Donald Trump intervenes — and sources said that seems unlikely at the moment.
Several polls show Cornyn trailing. But the severity of the situation became clear last week when Cornyn touted a poll on X showing him down 16 points, reasoning that Paxton’s lead is “shrinking already.”
“He must be getting nervous,” Cornyn wrote.
But the reality is it’s establishment Republicans who are nervous, worried that a deeply divisive, scandal-plagued Paxton will take down Cornyn in the primary and then lose the general election and cost the GOP a key Senate seat.
The concern is real because, as strong as Paxton seems to be as a primary candidate, general election polls show him losing theoretical matchups to Democrats.
“That’s going to be the national concern,” Texas Rep. Keith Self said of Paxton losing the general. “That’s going to be Trump’s concern.”
Self added that Trump would “probably have to get involved” in the Senate primary. “Because we do not want to lose a safe Republican seat in the Senate,” he said.
Many in the Texas delegation share the concern. Polls have shown Paxton losing to former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who Sen. Ted Cruz defeated by nine points last cycle. (Allred is looking at another run.)
Cornyn and Paxton couldn’t be more different candidates. The mudslinging between the two has already begun, with Cornyn repeatedly hitting Paxton over his high-profile impeachment in 2023, when it was alleged that Paxton was accepting bribes, abusing his power and helping a wealthy friend and campaign donor. Paxton and his allies, for their part, have highlighted the Texas Attorney General as a Trump-aligned Republican who is more conservative than Cornyn.
In short, the race is already getting messy.
“It feels like Republicans are slow-walking into a disaster in Texas,” a senior Senate GOP aide told NOTUS. “Right now, it doesn’t look like John Cornyn has a path to victory against Ken Paxton, and Ken Paxton is completely capable of blowing a competitive general election. It’s fair to say folks on the Hill are getting concerned.”
Republican Rep. Pat Fallon of Texas agreed with that sentiment, telling NOTUS that Paxton being strong in a primary and weak in a general was “the concern.”
“You got to hold that seat,” Fallon said.
But if the dynamics of the primary are going to change, Trump is probably going to have to get involved. And right now, he’s staying out of it.
One Trumpworld source told NOTUS that the president is either likely to endorse both Cornyn and Paxton or simply not endorse at all, adding that Trump and those around him don’t see an upside to going all-in on just one candidate when both men are allies.
One GOP Senator also told NOTUS they didn’t think Trump would weigh in on the primary. “I would be shocked if he did,” this senator said.
One of Trump’s closest allies on the Hill, Rep. Ronny Jackson — who served in the first Trump administration and remains close to the president — said he has spoken to Trump about the race and “doubts” he gets involved.
Unlike Self, Jackson’s concern is less about electability — he said both Paxton and Cornyn would be fine in the general — and more about how expensive the primary race could become. He suggested that Paxton and Cornyn need to talk about the best way forward, whatever that may be.
“I’d prefer not to spend a ton of money on a primary, you know, in a race that’s going to get really expensive in the general,” Jackson told NOTUS. “So I hope the two of them can work it out and figure out what they’re going to do.”
The Trumpworld source echoed this sentiment, saying the general consensus of those around the president isn’t necessarily that Paxton would lose in a general election — just that it would cost significantly more if he is the nominee.
Cornyn himself told NOTUS he’d welcome the president’s endorsement, but expressed some doubt that it would happen.
“I don’t know what his thought process is, and he may just decide to let it run its course without getting involved,” Cornyn said. “That’s his choice. But in the meantime, I’m not waiting around.”
Cornyn added that he talks to Trump regularly, has a good working relationship with him, and is “proud of my support for President Trump’s agenda.”
Paxton, for his part, said in a statement that Texans know his conservative record and “have my back.”
“If John Cornyn and his anti-Trump record are on the ballot, we run the risk of America First voters not showing up,” Paxton said. “And that puts all the progress we’ve made under President Trump at risk. Texans are demanding change. Everyone sees it, except John Cornyn.”
A number of Cornyn’s Senate colleagues have circled the wagons around him. Senate Majority Leader John Thune issued a swift endorsement when Cornyn launched his reelection bid. And the National Republican Senatorial Committee, led by Sen. Tim Scott, has backed Cornyn as well.
“I’ve met Ken Paxton a few times, but John’s got a lot to run on,” Sen. Rick Scott said. “I can’t imagine him not winning.”
Still, others in the conference aren’t picking sides just yet.
Notably, Cruz is declining to endorse in the primary. When NOTUS asked if he had a reaction to the recent Senate Leadership Fund polling, Cruz was laconic.
“No,” he said.
Of course, the primary might not just be a two-man race. Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt is still looking at the race, telling NOTUS he hasn’t decided whether he will run.
“Keep in mind, there’s still plenty of time,” Hunt said, referring to the December filing deadline. “We have plenty of time to sit back and see what happens.”
Predictably, Democrats are watching the primary fight with joy. Should Paxton win, it could position the Democratic nominee to flip Texas.
“I’m not surprised that Republicans are having a messy primary, because the Republicans are disorganized,” Rep. Julie Johnson, who replaced Allred in his district, told NOTUS. “So it’s fun to watch on my side of the aisle.”
The thought of Paxton winning the primary also concerns House Republican leaders, who worry that a competitive top-of-ticket primary could hurt their chances down-ballot.
“I’d be concerned if Paxton was the nominee,” a House GOP leadership aide told NOTUS. “We have three seats down-ballot that we care about. A highly competitive Senate race makes them more complicated for us in a general election.”
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Reese Gorman, Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano are reporters at NOTUS.