Democrats Think They Can Finally Win on Social Security

House Democratic strategists say they plan to turn Social Security into a major issue during next year’s midterm election, making the entitlement program — and accusations that Republicans have undercut it — a regular part of their message to voters.

And this time, they say they really mean it.

Almost every election cycle, Democrats talk a big game about tapping into Social Security’s broad popularity, only for the issue to ultimately fail to garner nationwide attention among voters.

But party strategists say that they think next year could be different, thanks to a series of actions and statements from President Donald Trump’s administration that they say have put an onus on the program not seen in decades. They cite disruptions to Social Security’s customer service operations, findings that the solvency of the program has been shortened and statements from top Trump officials indicating an interest in privatizing the program.

“This is the first time since 2006 that I would say Republicans went ahead and grabbed the third rail of politics,” said Will Van Nuys, deputy executive director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats’ political arm.

Van Nuys compared Trump’s actions to a politically infamous plan from former President George W. Bush to privatize Social Security in 2005. That plan was largely credited with helping Democrats regain the House majority in the 2006 midterm election.

For the first time since then, Van Nuys predicted, voters across the country will be worried enough about the program that Democrats can successfully make it a feature of their national message.

“This issue fits right into our broader frame, which is a frame on costs of the economy,” he said. “And further, when you look at the midterm electorate, they are older voters, they are working voters who are having to help support their elderly parents, or folks who just feel left behind by the economy.”

Democrats, who have long sought to portray themselves as staunch defenders of entitlement programs, don’t expect to run ads focused entirely, or even mostly, on Social Security or single it out as their top concern about the Trump administration. Rather, they’re hoping it can weave into the party’s broader criticism that the Republican Party has made decisions that make it harder for people to pay their bills and get ahead.

The focus on Social Security is based on a bet by Democrats that voters will care about a subject that’s received relatively little media attention since Trump took office, and will believe — over Republican objections — that Trump and GOP lawmakers are trying to undercut it.

They’re also gambling that the issue is worth calling attention to at a time when Democrats have also said they also want to highlight GOP efforts to restrict food stamp benefits, tighten access to Medicaid and reduce health insurance subsidies.

Republicans say they’ve seen Democrats promise before that Social Security will become a major campaign issue, only for it to fizzle.

“At this point, Democrats roll out a new load of bullshit every week and think they can fool voters with baseless claims and tired fear-mongering,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “It only proves they have no message besides lies, gaslighting, and recycled attacks. No wonder their party’s poll numbers are buried 50 feet below rock bottom.”

Republicans point out that, unlike in 2006, the GOP hasn’t debated a massive overhaul of Social Security. And Trump’s ability to win two presidential elections was in part because he pledged not to cut entitlement programs like Social Security or Medicare, convincing some voters that he was much less likely to do so than more deficit-focused GOP candidates in the past.

But even if voters haven’t seen much coverage about Social Security this year, polling indicates they’re nonetheless sensitive to any disruption to it. The program, which provides direct financial assistance to more than 70 million Americans, is generally considered one of the most politically popular in politics.

A 2024 survey from the Pew Research Center found that 79% of Americans, including 77% of Republicans, say the program’s benefits should not be reduced in any way.

The issue regularly emerges in individual races, when candidates say or do something calling their support of Social Security into question. But Democrats say the optimism that it will emerge as a national issue next year rests on what they consider the GOP’s surprisingly cavalier attitude toward the program since Trump took office, one they think risks angering voters.

Cuts mandated by the Department of Government Efficiency, for example, have reduced staffing in the program’s call centers and field offices, reportedly disrupting customer service operations. Social Security advocates say that has created more chaos for beneficiaries of the program than at any time they can remember.

“This is off the charts territory,” said Dan Adcock, director of government relations and policy at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. “We’ve never been in this situation.”

Studies also showed that the GOP’s massive tax-and-spending-cut law approved earlier this year will shorten the program’s solvency, and the Trump administration moved earlier this year to reduce payments to some people enrolled in the federal disability program.

And at an event in July, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the GOP’s new law would open a “backdoor for privatizing Social Security,” because of accounts it created that allowed everyday people to invest in the stock market.

Bessent later clarified his remarks, saying the accounts would supplement instead of replace Social Security.