As Republican candidates position themselves to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Rep. Buddy Carter is leading the GOP field, according to a new internal poll obtained by NOTUS.
With a margin of error of just over 3%, the internal polling memo was conducted for the Carter campaign and surveyed 970 likely Republican primary election voters between June 8 and June 10. And according to the poll, Carter holds a nine-point lead at 27% over a hypothetical field that includes Rep. Mike Collins (18%), Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (10%) and John King (2%), the state’s insurance commissioner and safety fire commissioner. (Thus far, King is the only other announced candidate.)
While it’s good news for Carter, there are also some positive signs for other Republicans — namely, that 43% of the respondents said they were undecided. And no GOP candidate was close to the required 50% they’ll need to avoid a runoff election.
But Carter can also take comfort with his favorability rating. Forty-one percent of likely Republican primary voters view Carter favorably, while 5% have an unfavorable view. Additionally, 36% of voters are unsure about Carter and 18% say they’ve never heard of him. But among voters who consider themselves “Trump Republicans,” Carter has a 54% to 2% favorability rating.
“This polling makes it clear that Georgians want a MAGA warrior in the Senate who will defend President Trump, common sense, and the rule of law,” Harley Adsit, a spokesperson for Carter, said in a statement. “Buddy Carter is the best candidate to defeat radical Jon Ossoff and fight for Georgia’s values in the Senate. Buddy Carter is for you; Jon Ossoff is for they/them.”
A spokesperson for the Ossoff campaign declined comment.
While Carter may be positioning himself as the favorite in the GOP primary, President Donald Trump’s endorsement could play a massive role. According to the poll, Trump has a favorability rating of 85% among Republican primary voters, with 55% of voters saying they would more than likely vote for whomever Trump endorses.
“A full-throated endorsement from President Trump and a well-resourced campaign to spread the word would rocket Carter to an insurmountable lead,” the poll memo reads.
A senior adviser to Collins told NOTUS that the congressman is “committed to delivering America First wins in Congress, but if he decides to run for U.S. Senate, this and all other public and private polling shows him as the strongest Trump conservative to defeat Ossoff.”
Republicans view the Georgia race as one of their top pickup opportunities, with Ossoff barely beating then-GOP Sen. David Perdue for the Senate seat in 2020, when Joe Biden beat Trump in the presidential race.
Now, Georgia has flipped back to the right, going for Trump in 2024 by more than 2 points. Republicans, however, are on edge about the race, particularly after their preferred candidate, Gov. Brian Kemp, decided not to run.
Almost instantly, Republicans went into overdrive to ensure they avoided another Herschel Walker situation. The state party was able to convince Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene not to run, avoiding a messy primary fight that very well could have ended with Greene as the GOP nominee.
And now the decision lies on Trump, if he stays out of the race it can become a true fist fight that can weaken the nominee ahead of a crucial general for Republicans. Or he can get involved and likely make the nominee’s path easier. Carter’s team hopes it’s the latter and they back him.
“Supporters of President Trump want to send an America First Republican to Washington to have his back and push forward his agenda. This data shows that they have made their choice in this race for the US Senate, and it is Buddy Carter,” the poll memo reads.
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Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.