A Tennessee Special Election Could Test Whether a Blue Wave Is Coming in 2026

Just about everyone agrees Republicans will win a special House election in a deep-red Tennessee district next month. Both parties are watching the race closely anyway.

Less than a month after Democrats swept to big victories in November’s races, a special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will offer another chance to gauge the national political climate, testing whether Democrats can continue their political momentum in a federal contest dominated by conservative voters.

The race — triggered in June by former Republican Rep. Mark Green’s sudden decision to leave office — pits Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn against Republican Matt Van Epps in the sprawling 7th District, which includes a slice of Nashville and a large swath of rural Tennessee.

President Donald Trump won the district by 22 percentage points last year, but there are some indications Democrats could fare better. Cook Political Report changed its rating of the district from “solid” to “likely Republican” on Thursday. How close Democrats get in the special election could say a lot about the momentum they have ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

“We saw what happened last week in America: All across the United States, Democratic energy is up. People are tired of what’s going on right now in Washington,” Rachel Campbell, the chair of the Tennessee Democratic Party, told NOTUS. “Aftyn Behn gives us an opportunity to send a fresh face, a fresh voice and a fighter to Congress, and that’s what we’re excited about and what we’re looking forward to.”

Other Democrats are more skeptical of Behn’s chances, questioning whether a lawmaker with an activist background — Behn touts her unabashedly liberal views — fits the conservative area she’s now trying to represent.

In an interview, Behn said her candidacy could serve as a template for other House candidates running in conservative areas.

“If we are able to get close or flip it, I think it is a testament to how the Democratic playbook will be rewritten in the South, which is one of running on affordability issues and not responding to the cultural issues that the right is weaponizing,” Behn said.

Nashville, once a Democratic stronghold within Tennessee, was split during the state’s last redistricting process in 2022 so that the city would go from being in one safe Democratic seat to three heavily Republican districts.

Republicans are confident that their candidate can avoid a long-shot upset. Van Epps served in the Tennessee National Guard for eight years and has a decade of active-duty service. He emerged as the clear winner from a crowded Republican primary and has the backing of President Donald Trump, House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan and Green, whom he would be replacing.

Trump joined Van Epps for a tele-rally Thursday evening. On the call, Trump encouraged his supporters to “get out and vote,” adding that “bad things can happen if you don’t.” Van Epps conveyed the “stakes” of the election: “If we lose this seat, we could very well lose our country to radicals like my opponent.”

Van Epps’ campaign said they expect him to prevail.

“While Democrat Aftyn Behn supports a higher tax and anti-law enforcement agenda, Matt Van Epps is focused on listening to voters and tackling what matters: lowering costs, keeping families safe, and supporting President Trump,” a spokesman for the campaign said in a statement. “Tennesseans want a fighter, and that’s exactly why they’ll send Matt to Congress in December.”

Still, Republicans emphasize that Van Epps is running a competitive campaign — one cognizant that special elections are traditionally low-turnout races, a dynamic that in recent years has benefitted Democrats. Next month’s election might have especially low voter participation: It will take place the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, which could hinder early-voting efforts and distract voters who might’ve otherwise turned out for the race.

Democrats say Behn has run a campaign designed to boost Democratic turnout, enlisting the aid of liberal favorites like Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas and emphasizing issues like releasing all Justice Department files related to the infamous sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, campaigned with Behn last weekend.

“Democrats are competing, overperforming, and winning everywhere this year, and the DNC is all-in to support Behn’s campaign from now until election day,” Martin said in a statement.

Behn has been a member of the Tennessee House since 2023, and narrowly edged out Nashville businessman Darden Copeland in this year’s Democratic U.S. House primary. She’s a noted community organizer, who served as the campaign director for the progressive advocacy group Rural Organizing. Behn also served as a statewide organizer for Indivisible. She also caught local attention after being forcibly removed from the state House for advocating for the ouster of a lawmaker accused of sexual assault.

Former Rep. Jim Cooper, who represented Nashville for 20 years but retired from Congress after the district was redrawn, told NOTUS that last week’s results in Virginia and New Jersey were hopeful. But he predicted Behn would have a challenge with rural voters.

“The gerrymandering of Nashville put the political center of the 7th Congressional District outside of Nashville,” he said. “So you have to be good at representing that political center. I’m well aware of the rural–urban tensions, which should not exist, but they do exist. And how do you bridge those tensions?”

Hendrell Remus, the former chair of the Tennessee Democratic Party, told NOTUS that he sees Behn as the “underdog,” but Democratic turnout could be high.

Remus said that “optics-wise,” the race might appear to be a signal ahead of the 2026 midterms, though he cautioned against using the election as a predictor of the future if Behn wins.

“I think it will just be one of those moments where Republicans were not able to galvanize the folks in the district that was 100% shaped for them,” he said. “I mean, it’s a district that was cut perfectly for them to be able to come to victory. And I don’t think it’ll send any major message about midterms.”

This article has been updated to correct that Martin appeared with Behn last weekend.