Tim Walz Isn’t Running for Reelection. That Complicates Republicans’ Plans.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s end to his reelection campaign will make it more challenging for Republicans to take back the governor’s mansion and win down-ballot races, strategists in the state say.

Especially if Sen. Amy Klobuchar enters the race, which she is considering doing.

“We saw our chances against Walz as being the best shot we’ve had in the last 20 years of flipping the governor’s seat and putting a Republican in office,” said Preya Samsundar, a Republican strategist who has worked on campaigns in Minnesota and the Midwest.

Walz abandoned his bid for a third term this week amid an intensifying alleged fraud scandal within the state’s welfare programs. Walz has not been charged with any crimes, but has been a target of national Republicans’ political campaigns.

The Trump administration, too, has focused on Minnesota and Walz’s leadership. It froze federal funding for child care in the state and began an ICE operation focused on Minnesota’s Somali population in December and the president made racist comments toward Somali immigrants. Amid the surge in ICE presence, an immigration agent shot and killed a woman during a protest in Minneapolis on Wednesday,.

Republicans face a tough opponent in Klobuchar if she runs. The four-term senator has won by more than 15 points in each bid she’s made for Senate since 2006, though her margins against Republicans have been shrinking since 2012.

“If you had to pick a candidate that we don’t want to see on the ballot, it would be Senator Klobuchar,” said Amy Koch, a former Republican state senator who works in lobbying and advocacy in Minnesota.

Republicans shouldn’t abandon their messaging about fraud, though, strategists said.

Democrats are especially hopeful after their victories in 2025. But Republicans are attempting to elevate the alleged fraud scandal playing out to change their odds in Minnesota.

“A lot of folks are trying to view this election, prior to Walz dropping out, as being a referendum between Trump and Tim Walz,” Samsundar said. “I think that what this election is is actually a referendum between 20 years of DFL-led policies and DFL-led government more than anything else,” she said, referring to the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

Any blame would be harder to assign to a candidate like Klobuchar, who is not a part of the current state government.

The Minnesota GOP is trying, though. “Klobuchar didn’t just stand by during the Walz years — she cheered them on. Instead of using her seniority in Washington to demand accountability, stop fraud, or protect taxpayers, she issued press release after press release praising ‘progress’ while Minnesotans dealt with the consequences,” the party posted on X this week.

“This kind of stunt underscores how desperate Minnesota Republicans have become over the last few days,” a DFL spokesperson said in a statement. “Senator Klobuchar has built trust with Minnesotans during her service as a prosecutor and a Senator who has delivered bipartisan wins for our state time and again. No matter what her future holds, Minnesotans won’t fall for such dubious attacks.”

Messaging becomes tricky for Democrats, too, Koch said. “A Democrat that comes in to run for this office needs to be able to say to the people of Minnesota, ‘This is a disaster, here’s how it happened, and I’m going to clean it up,’ but that’s tough to say when it’s your own party.”

Voters want integrity in welfare programs, and Democrats should take responsibility for the fraud, said Matt Barron, a Democratic and rural strategist who advised Klobuchar’s 2020 presidential campaign.

“Whoever winds up being the Democratic nominee, they’d be wise to embrace that and lean into that, rather than being on the defensive and incurring voter wrath by saying, ‘Oh no, nothing to see here.’”

Walz’s departure will also impact other statewide races, said Michael Brodkorb, a Republican strategist who supported the Harris-Walz ticket. The alleged fraud scandal and Walz’s sparring with Trump energized state and national Republicans against the governor.

“When you take away that electoral opportunity, you have to go back to the drawing board. You have to reconfigure this entire election process,” he said.