Don’t you dare tell John Avlon that New York’s 1st Congressional District is trending red.
Before NOTUS could even get through a question about running in a tough race, Avlon was pushing back. “The narratives around the district are fundamentally false,” Avlon, the Democrat running for Congress on the eastern tip of Long Island, said.
Much like he used to do on CNN when he was a high-profile TV reporter, Avlon offered a list of “reality checks.”
The former journalist pointed out that while Donald Trump won Long Island’s Suffolk County in 2016 by roughly 50,000 votes, Trump’s lead shrank to just 232 votes in 2020. He noted that the 1st District has primarily been represented by Democrats over the last half-century, specifically mentioning that former Rep. Tim Bishop won it in 2002 and held the seat for over a decade. And, Avlon said, he raised nearly $2.5 million last quarter to his GOP opponent’s $900,000.
“This is a swing district,” Avlon said, describing himself as “bullish” on his chances of toppling the freshman Republican incumbent, Rep. Nick LaLota.
But even if Avlon is right, and New York’s 1st District is still, in fact, a swing district, the conservative winds that ushered three new Long Island Republicans into Congress in 2022 might not shift in time to carry Avlon to the House of Representatives.
For each of the statistics Avlon cited suggesting his district isn’t trending red, there’s another that suggests it is.
Although Trump only won Suffolk County by a couple of hundred votes in 2020, a Newsday/Siena College poll in August showed him up in Suffolk by 14 points over Kamala Harris. While Democrats have controlled the district for 26 of the last 50 years, Republicans have held the seat since 2015. And LaLota was outraised last cycle too — he won anyway.
For LaLota’s part, he’s every bit as bullish as Avlon about winning this time. “Bring it on,” he said in an interview with NOTUS.
Republicans, LaLota said, “understand that the trajectory of the House, and thereby the country, will be decided mostly through the New York suburbs and Southern California suburbs.”
“That’s how the House majority was made two years ago,” he continued. “That’s how we’ll keep the House majority, and we acknowledge that responsibility and we embrace it.”
Long Island — and the New York suburbs at large — are widely considered the frontier of the House majority. Both parties have poured cash into Long Island’s three competitive races: The 1st District with LaLota and Avlon, the 4th District with GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Democratic challenger Laura Gillen, and the 3rd district with Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi (who replaced former Rep. George Santos in February) and his Republican challenger, Mike LiPetri.
Operatives from both parties told NOTUS they’re clear-eyed about the stakes, and they said the LaLota-Avlon race is just one part of the equation. Just as they’re in agreement about the importance of Long Island, they’ve also landed on talking about the same three issues: immigration, crime and inflation.
As it stands, operatives believe Suozzi and LaLota are poised to hang on to their seats. The D’Esposito-Gillen race seems to be the big question, though no race is certain and each one could determine control of the House.
“The path to the majority runs through Long Island,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Ellie Dougherty said in a statement.
“And after winning a hotly contested special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, Democrats have proven we are in a strong position to continue to reach every voter possible with our plans to secure the border, make communities safer and bring down costs,” she said.
That statement — barring the bit about Democrats and the 3rd District win — reads like it could have been lifted from a GOP talking points memo. In fact, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Savannah Viar said Long Island voters are “turning to Republicans to clean up Democrats’ mess by securing the border, clamping down on crime and working to restore the SALT deduction.”
As Democrats seek to reclaim the House, there’s reason to believe the party’s embrace of GOP rhetoric on immigration and crime is working. Even DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene credited the tough talk on immigration — like vowing to close avenues for illegal immigration — with helping Suozzi win in February.
“The southern border is 2,000 miles away. But the migrant crisis has landed right in our own backyard. I’ll work across the aisle to do what our leaders haven’t — secure our southern border,” Suozzi said in a February campaign ad.
The Washington wisdom goes something like this: Suozzi blunted the importance of certain issues where Republicans have an advantage by embracing conservative talking points on the border and crime, leaving voters to decide his race on other issues where there’s more daylight between the candidates and where Democrats have an advantage, like abortion and health care.
Vulnerable Democrats around the country have taken note.
As he prepares for reelection in November, Suozzi has deployed the same techniques. Long Island Progressive Coalition chief of staff Joe Sackman noted that, while Suozzi’s Republican challenger has branded his materials with a blue hue that reads distinctly Democratic, the New York State Democratic Committee sent out a mailer with a wall backdrop that apparently evokes Trump’s “build the wall” mentality.
For Sackman — also a former congressional candidate — that’s a problem. “You’re reinforcing your opposition’s messaging,” he told NOTUS. “Your opposition is going to win.”
But don’t tell that to Suozzi; he’s ahead in the polls. And don’t tell it to Avlon. He said he wasn’t concerned about handing the opposition a win by reinforcing GOP messaging. He said that “nobody wants high crime” and that everybody has a right to “clean streets.”
“Candidate quality matters and playing offense on the issues people care about matters and seizing the center matters,” Avlon said. “And I think that’s one of the reasons our race has been resonating.”
Avlon’s race has attracted media attention, donors and high-profile endorsers, including Liz Cheney. Avlon is also on the DCCC’s red to blue list, opening him up to national support.
But the polling in what is the most conservative of Long Island’s three competitive districts paints a darker picture for him and Democrats. The Cook Political Report rates the district as “likely Republican” and LaLota’s internal polling shows Avlon down 42% to 50%. (Avlon said the fact that LaLota’s team leaked a poll showing the incumbent at 50% was “not a sign of strength.” LaLota responded that he could “understand” why Avlon would be “upset with Long Island polling that has him down by eight.”)
In the final stretch, Avlon said he’s focused on the ground game and the airwaves. “We are executing our mission, and we’ve got the momentum,” he said.
The Long Island race attracting perhaps the most attention for its momentum this cycle, however, is the one right next door. While Avlon may still have some catching up to do to oust LaLota, Gillen is in a tight rematch against D’Esposito. The race has consistently polled within a couple points.
Gillen has dedicated much of her race to discussing abortion rights. But she’s leaned in on immigration and crime too. She spent Thursday in Nassau County stumping with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
But as Democrats on Long Island have moved to the middle and embraced some conservative talking points on immigration, Republicans have swung to the right in their embrace of the MAGA agenda. Although he brands himself as a moderate in the House, LaLota proudly stood alongside Trump last month at his Long Island rally.
“My constituents view Trump as somebody who will make life more affordable, life safer and who will reassert our position on the world stage,” LaLota told NOTUS.
LaLota called Trump’s influence energizing, and in a district where Trump should win handily, LaLota is clearly betting that cozying up to the GOP nominee is good politics.
Avlon, meanwhile, thinks LaLota is isolating independents, precisely the people he’s still trying to bring into the fold before Election Day.
If Avlon is going to win, he’s likely going to need independents and some Republicans to split their ticket — which further underscores why he’s borrowing from the Suozzi playbook of borrowing rhetoric from your opponent.
It’s a narrow path to victory, but New York operative Hank Sheinkopf told NOTUS that Avlon has some reason to be hopeful.
“Avlon is performing better than people might have expected in a much more conservative district, which is NY-01,” Sheinkopf said. “Could this happen? It’s possible.”
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Riley Rogerson is a reporter at NOTUS.
Violet Jira is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.