Republicans are confident they’ll be able to keep Donald Trump’s momentum in Virginia as they look ahead to their 2025 elections, which includes the high-profile gubernatorial race that usually breaks for the party that doesn’t hold the White House.
Trump lost the state in this year’s presidential election. But he was able to narrow his loss in Virginia to under 6 percentage points, and most counties in Virginia saw a shift toward the Republican base this campaign cycle
What happened in Virginia did not happen in a vacuum — Republicans similarly swept across the country, taking control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. But the results have Republicans feeling bullish that they’ll be able to build upon the enthusiasm from this cycle as they begin laying the groundwork for next year’s races.
“Trump has reshaped the political field across the country,” Rep. Ben Cline, a Republican from Virginia, told NOTUS. He added that Republicans across Virginia need to prioritize the economy, energy independence and education to follow Trump’s trajectory. He added that Trump’s “message resonated across Virginia.”
Virginia has been considered the testing ground for political messaging after a presidential race for decades, given that its voters often elect a governor from the party not in the White House. The last time a member of the sitting president’s party won Virginia’s governor’s seat was in 2013 when Terry McAuliffe was elected following Barack Obama’s reelection win.
This cycle, however, Republicans feel confident they can break the trend by using Trump’s populism to push GOP messaging focused on the middle class and hold the seat two terms in a row.
The race is already underway. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin endorsed Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears on Monday as the Republican nominee. Merle Rutledge, a Republican, has also thrown his hat into the ring, while on the Democratic side, outgoing U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running unopposed so far.
“I think 2025 is a year when Republicans can compete very well nationally [and] in Virginia,” said Daniel Gade, former state commissioner of veteran services who ran as the Republican opponent to Sen. Mark Warner in 2021. “I think there’s a real chance that whoever the candidate is in 2025 for governor will get the national support that he or she needs in order to match the spending of the Democratic Party.”
The Republican National Committee and Trump’s transition team did not respond to requests for comment.
But during his campaign, Trump went out of his way to make the case Virginia is a battleground state, even visiting the state during his final weekend on the trail and showing up at events alongside Youngkin and Earle-Sears. Trump also campaigned with Senate candidate Hung Cao, who lost to incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine this fall and whose candidacy centered around support for Trump’s conservative policies.
While Trump didn’t win the state during any of his races, the gap this time was much closer than President Joe Biden’s win of 10 percentage points in 2020. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won the state was in 2004 when George W. Bush beat John Kerry by nearly 15 percentage points, but Republican candidates have won statewide races much more recently.
Youngkin won his campaign against McAuliffe in 2021 by distancing himself from Trump. But in his final year in office, Youngkin declared his full support for the president-elect.
Youngkin, who is leaving office because he can’t serve consecutive terms, said in his endorsement of Earle-Sears for governor and Jason Miyares for state attorney general that “there could not be a better team to carry on our success for Virginians for the next four years.”
The governor highlighted some issues he thought were popular in the state, including veterans’ rights, the economy and “empowering parents in their child’s education and life.”
Democrats, meanwhile, admit that the results of 2024 in the state made them nervous.
Outgoing mayor of Richmond and Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor Levar Stoney said Democrats need to do more outreach in Virginia’s rural communities. “We obviously need to do better in Virginia’s countryside, and I think we will, when our ticket is formed, reach into rural Virginia with a working-class message that will galvanize people,” he said.
In a statement to NOTUS, Spanberger’s spokesperson said her campaign would remain focused on issues like lowering rising inflation and building stronger and safer schools.
“Rep. Spanberger has made clear that she is deeply concerned about what this election result means for the Commonwealth of Virginia and for the country,” the spokesperson said. “Following the election of former President Trump, she also knows that Virginia must have a Governor who is committed to protecting the rights and fundamental freedoms of all Virginians.”
Matthew Hurtt, chair of the Arlington County GOP, said in his 15 years with the county, the 2024 Trump campaign brought a level of funding and volunteerism he had never seen before.
“We had more volunteers than we have had in the past, and our candidates at the local level did better than they have in the past, so we’re planning to build on that success,” Hurtt said.
His advice for the Republican Party on how to do that? “Run candidates for House of Delegates in every single district. Even difficult districts.”
Amelia Benavides-Colón is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
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Correction: This article originally misstated the percentage Harris won Virginia by in 2024.