What issue poses the biggest long-term threat to the unity of Trump’s MAGA movement?

The greatest threat to the unity of the MAGA coalition is Donald Trump. He’s the one man who holds it together, and the one person who could tear it apart. How? First, through economic mismanagement. Trump was elected for two reasons: close the Southern border and defeat inflation. He’s accomplished one task but not the other. Illegal immigration has declined to such an extent that we’re arguing over deportations, not arrivals. Yet inflation persists. It is subdued, for sure, but still eroding Americans’ standard of living. Failure to boost incomes above price increases endangers the GOP House majority. And a smaller Republican conference will be more divided.

Another problem for MAGA is Trump’s eventual absence from the scene. Trump will influence Republicans for as long as he’s able to post to Truth Social. But there’s a difference between a current president making decisions and a former one spouting off. Trump’s power over the movement won’t transfer seamlessly to a successor, who after all will have a mind of his (or her) own. The battle to define the post-Trump right has already begun, with JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and Tucker Carlson entering the fray. Think MAGA is rambunctious now? Wait until Donald Trump no longer holds sway.

Matthew Continetti is the director of domestic policy studies and the inaugural Patrick and Charlene Neal chair in American prosperity at the American Enterprise Institute.

No single issue will divide MAGA solidarity. Rather, it is President Trump’s often-used strategy of flooding the zone that will backfire.

Tensions in areas such as “big government,” the division between the public and private sectors, freedom of expression, and engagement in international conflicts have steadily eroded support from many of the most popular MAGA acolytes.

Sen. Rand Paul publicly opposed the 10% government stake in Intel, calling it “a step towards socialism.” Tucker Carlson said Trump was “complicit in the act of war,” given his support for Israel. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene described the 10-year moratorium on state and local laws regulating AI as “potentially dangerous,” arguing it violates states’ rights. Bipartisan pressure in the Senate has pushed Trump to flip-flop on where MAGA stands relative to the Russia-Ukraine war.

The government shutdown has also exposed cracks in the broader Republican Party. Some Republican senators have talked with Democrats about compromises on health care.

Meanwhile, at our Yale CEO Caucus in September — a roundtable for corporate and political leaders to discuss the business implications of urgent national and global events — we saw a bipartisan consensus condemning actions by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that have led to an erosion of trust in public health policy and scientific knowledge.

The dismay extends beyond public health, as has been made apparent in general opinion polling. As of mid-October, Trump’s net approval ratings were worse than those of any president at this point in their tenure since former President George W. Bush. And all this occurred during Trump’s first nine months in office. The storm clouds are already gathering.

The renowned clothing designer Joseph Abboud warned, “You can’t be all things to all people.” That is true not only about fashion, but also about leadership.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is the Lester Crown Professor of Leadership Practice at the Yale School of Management as well as founder and president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, the world’s school for incumbent CEOs. He has advised five U.S. presidents across parties.

Stephen Henriques is a senior research fellow at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute and a former McKinsey & Company consultant who was an economic policy adviser for Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont.

Political coalitions are fragile because they require a consensus over goals, values, tactics and leadership — and that consensus can be difficult to maintain over time. If history is a guide, then the MAGA movement will be threatened most by a contest over leadership. Some coalition members will wonder if Trump’s MAGA movement can survive without Trump, while others will attempt to position themselves as the movement’s new leader. Those kinds of leadership challenges are inherent in all coalition movements, but the MAGA movement is unique in that it is built on irony — the rhetorical strategy of saying, but not saying. In his rise to power, irony allowed Trump to say two things at once, which gave him the out of plausible deniability and allowed him to be an unaccountable leader. However, that ironic twist (ironically) threatens the MAGA movement’s long-term stability because other potential future leaders can’t be sure if Trump plans to run again. Last week, he said, “It’s pretty clear, I’m not allowed to run.” But he also said, in classic Trumpian fashion, “We’ll see what happens” and called the rule “stupid.” Trump is Schrödinger’s political candidate — both a lame duck second-term president and an incumbent potentially running another campaign. It’s difficult to know how to navigate that kind of leadership challenge, especially for a fragile coalition like the MAGA movement.

Jennifer Mercieca is a professor of communication and journalism at Texas A&M University.

History tells us that even the most influential figures eventually see their influence decline. In American politics, there’s no quicker way to lose this power than by failing to deliver on promises.

Consider the current landscape: Only 29% of Americans say they are satisfied with the country’s direction. While MAGA-aligned elected officials attempt to galvanize their base through digital and political theater, most Americans are not chronically online or impressed by juvenile antics. Instead, they’re focused on keeping food on the table, a roof over their heads and their families safe.

The economy, above all, drives perceptions of political success. And as Americans feel their priorities aren’t being met — indicated by the president’s 58% unfavorability rating — the long-term prospects of a once-popular movement can quickly become murky.

This problem will likely be reinforced by the fact that MAGA has no heir apparent, and the president’s unique ability to captivate his audience is virtually unattainable by his proteges. Soon, hopeful leaders may attempt to step in, but none will fully replicate the president’s appeal. And without tangible results on kitchen-table issues that resonate with everyday Americans, those future MAGA leaders risk seeing their movement lose its relevance in national politics.

Brittany Martinez is executive director of Principles First.

When Donald Trump exits office, he’ll leave a massive vacuum that multiple players will attempt to fill. But there is no one potential heir to the movement, and the number of Americans who came to MAGA (or the GOP) because of Trump himself is significant. A fluctuating but substantial percentage of Republicans and those who lean Republican consider themselves more aligned with Trump than with the GOP. It is entirely possible that when he is gone, they will recede back into the majority of Americans who don’t actively participate in the political process, leaving a gap for the Republicans they’ll have to fill elsewhere. Even if a few of them were to disengage politically, it could have significant electoral effects for the GOP.

Reed Galen co-founded The Lincoln Project. His Substack and podcast are both called “The Home Front.”

The MAGA movement was in formation long before the 2016 presidential election, but it only gelled and took flight once Donald Trump became the GOP nominee. With Trump, the movement was finally handed a singular figure to rally around, and with MAGA, Trump was gifted a ready-made platform and voter base that he quickly turned into the well-oiled machine it is today.

Lately we’ve seen fissures and cracks in the movement, most notably due to frustration over the failure to release the Epstein files. I was perhaps naively surprised to see some outsized MAGA voices choose their loyalty to the files being released over their loyalty to Trump. But unlike other political movements that morphed or fizzled such as the Tea Party (which helped MAGA become what it is today), MAGA remains an ironclad political force.

It remains TBD what form MAGA will take once Trump eventually departs the national stage. But as long as MAGA’s hero and leader remains at the top of the coalition, the movement will remain unified.

Adrienne Elrod is a former senior adviser and senior spokesperson for the Biden and Harris presidential campaigns and a five-time presidential campaign adviser.