Zohran Mamdani’s projected victory in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary is sending shockwaves through the national party, forcing party leaders to reconsider everything from their policy agendas to political strategies.
Even if a mayoral race in deep-blue New York City is categorically different from other primaries, party strategists say incumbents in federal and state office are still taking notice.
“We are a party of bed wetters,” said one Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about internal party discussions. “So, yes, people are bed-wetting.”
Mamdani’s success has set off internal speculation that the same type of liberal voters who demanded change in New York might next be coming for Democratic incumbents across the country. Mamdani on Tuesday finished atop the first round of balloting in the primary, besting former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, despite millions spent on Cuomo’s behalf in campaign ads and a string of endorsements from longtime party leaders like former President Bill Clinton.
“This should be a huge warning to every establishment Democrat and gatekeeper who keeps playing by the old playbook,” said Amanda Litman, founder of Run for Something, a political group that encourages young Democrats to run for office. “Democratic voters are pissed. They want change.”
“If the dinosaurs and elderly establishment don’t step back, they’re going to get pushed out,” she added.
Cuomo was far from a perfect candidate; he resigned as governor in 2021 after a series of sexual harassment allegations. Some Democrats assessed in the aftermath of Mamdani’s apparent victory that Cuomo’s personal baggage — and not his ideological views — was the reason he lost despite establishment support.
But his defeat by a younger democratic socialist nonetheless comes amid a broader reckoning for Democrats, whose own voters hold a historically low opinion of the party after Donald Trump’s election last year. Some activists, like former Democratic National Committee vice chair David Hogg, have argued that Democratic leadership is too old and vowed to support younger primary challengers to longtime elected officials.
If youth turnout really had surged in the mayoral primary, that would be cause for even greater concern for some Democrats, the Democratic strategist said.
“Are young people really showing up in unprecedented numbers in primaries?” they said. “If that is the case, folks should probably be a bit worried.”
Many activists compared Mamdani’s apparent win Tuesday to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shock victory in 2018, when she upset incumbent Rep. Joe Crowley in a New York City congressional district. Her victory, coupled with democratic socialist Bernie Sanders’ rise as a national political figure, was largely seen as proof that the Democrats’ progressive wing had arrived as a force to be reckoned with in the party.
Centrist Democratic leaders, for their part, counter that what happens in New York politics doesn’t necessarily translate nationwide.
“New York has seized the means of socialist superstar production, but one every seven years won’t transform the party nationally,” said Liam Kerr, co-founder of the group Welcome PAC, which advocates for the Democrats’ moderate wing.
Kerr dismissed concerns that incumbents elsewhere in the country had reason to worry, saying recent history shows most Democratic officials withstanding primary challengers.
“Incumbents without baggage in normal districts have been fine since 2018, and that won’t change now,” he said.
Before the election, moderate Democrats had warned that a Mamdani victory would put the national party in a difficult political position, forced to answer for the candidate’s previous support for positions like defunding the police. Many of them reiterated Wednesday that the mayoral candidate should not be a template for Democratic candidates in redder districts and states.
“It’s dangerous for Dems to learn the wrong lessons from such situations,” Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, posted on X. “The Squad wasn’t the path to the majority in 2018 – it was the super-talented moderates. A bunch of them are now in or running for state houses and the Senate, and they are the party’s future.”
The tepid response from centrist Democrats was one of three different categories of Democratic responses that emerged after Mamdani’s victory. Some of the party’s more progressive-friendly leaders, instead of warning about the danger of Mamdani’s approach, emphasized the party needed to learn from his campaign.
Bill Burton, a former aide to President Barack Obama, praised the authenticity of Mamdani’s appeal through social media and other campaign appearances, saying Democratic candidates “need to be real.”
Neera Tanden, a former top official in Joe Biden’s administration, said Mamdani’s focus on cost-of-living issues should be an approach Democrats everywhere emulate.
Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut similarly praised Mamdani’s economic agenda, saying bold economic ideas are necessary to win over voters.
“Focus on shifting economic power. Relentlessly. Have big ideas on how to do it,” the senator wrote on X. “Be joyful and authentic. Even if your ideas aren’t considered ‘mainstream’ by elites. The elites have little idea what’s actually mainstream.”
But many Democratic figures refrained from singling out the specifics of Mamdani’s policy proposals, which include freezing rents and levying higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations.
Avoiding the specifics of his policy agenda misses the real reason for his victory, some progressive leaders say.
“I worry that a lot of establishment Democrats want to adopt his very creative, very smart communication strategy … without understanding those strategies don’t work without being grounded in the popular substantive policies,” said Stephanie Taylor, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
“I don’t think it’s enough to say, ‘I feel your pain,’” she added. “The Bill Clinton line doesn’t work anymore. People need to know, ‘What are you going to do about it?’”
Taylor said she thought Mamdani’s performance Tuesday should send a message to Democrats nationwide that the party’s electoral base is hungry for change.
“The reason why last night was so significant is it shows the appetite for and the yearning for that in the Democratic base,” she said. “And I think you’re going to see a lot more insurgent candidates step up and say we’re tired of waiting and we’re going to take this party back.”
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Alex Roarty is a reporter at NOTUS.