Nobody knows if Iowa and New Hampshire will regain their prized place atop the official Democratic presidential primary calendar in 2028 after both states were deposed from the start of the nominating process before the last campaign.
That hasn’t stopped the party’s next crop of potential candidates from going to them anyway.
Since the year began, many of the Democrats widely seen as potential top presidential candidates, including Pete Buttigieg, J.B. Pritzker and Amy Klobuchar, have made repeated visits to Iowa and New Hampshire, renewing a campaign ritual in the two states that was until recently embraced by White House aspirants. Next weekend, Sen. Ruben Gallego is set to become the latest Democrat to make a high-profile appearance amid rising speculation, visiting the Iowa State Fair before heading to New Hampshire later this month.
These visits are, on one level, part of a well-worn strategy to bring attention to the candidates, say party strategists and officials say, one that works even if the states might not be among the four early ones in the primary.
“It just draws out something in Washington and political reporters, whether it’s old news or not,” said one adviser to a potential presidential candidate, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “People just get so excited when the word ‘Iowa’ comes out of somebody’s mouth, that they just can’t help themselves.”
But as Democrats slowly start turning their attention to the next nominating contest, party officials and strategists also say the appearances there reflect a deeper uncertainty about the state of the 2028 calendar, which remains in flux after changes in 2024. The Democratic National Committee has yet to decide which four states will go first, and the process over the decision is widely expected to be contentious.
Candidates might already be hedging their bets on which states to start building out their campaigns in, strategists say, signaling that they plan to compete in certain states before the national committee’s decision.
“It’s uncharted territory,” said Jeff Link, a veteran Iowa Democratic strategist. “How this is going to end up, how candidates are going to schedule and spend their time … everything is up in the air.”
Questions about the future primary schedule focus most intensely on Iowa, which Democratic officials say has less of a chance to regain its place than New Hampshire. If the state holds its traditional caucus before the start of the official DNC calendar, party officials say, there’s a distinct chance candidates might compete there anyway, hoping to earn momentum (if not official delegates) from the contest.
“If Iowa ends up playing chicken with a very weak DNC, which is probably the most likely scenario, it’s not going to be pretty,” said a Democratic official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The candidates aren’t going to know what’s up and what’s down.”
The early jockeying over where potential candidates spend their time and which states go first in the 2028 primary comes against the backdrop of a Democratic Party trying to regain its footing after the defeats of the 2024 election. The loss to President Donald Trump has left the party’s approval ratings at historic lows, even with many of its strongest supporters despondent about the state of the country during Trump’s second term in office.
“We are living in a time where politics has become significantly more deadly real to folks,” said Raymond Buckley, chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. “And I think people are understanding the challenges that we have. We not only must win the White House, but we have to elect somebody who has the skills to communicate to the public.”
Potential candidates, of course, have visited more than just Iowa and New Hampshire this year. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and California Gov. Gavin Newsom each made a high-profile visit to South Carolina, the state that was first on the DNC’s sanctioned calendar in 2024 and widely expected to be part of the process again in 2028.
But as people try to draw attention to themselves, states like Iowa still garner attention.
“The fact Iowa didn’t go first in the primary in 2024 doesn’t really matter,” said the adviser to the potential candidate. “People still get all warm and fuzzy when they hear ‘Iowa’ and ‘Des Moines’ and ‘Council Bluffs.’”
Not everyone agrees with the strategy. Rebecca Pearcey, who was the political director and a senior adviser for Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s 2020 presidential campaign, called going to Iowa part of an “old playbook” that campaigns need to move past, especially if the state’s caucus won’t be an official part of the start of the primary any longer.
“If I had a client who was running for president, and they wanted to go to Iowa, I would jump ship,” Pearcey said. “Unless they are campaigning for a long-lost cousin, there’s no reason to go there.”
Democrats began reconsidering the order of their primary schedule after the 2020 election, amid long-standing complaints that the overwhelmingly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire did not properly reflect the larger Democratic Party and after Iowa botched its 2020 Democratic caucuses. The schedule was formally changed, however, at the behest of then-President Joe Biden, who wanted South Carolina to go first in the primary in what was seen as a move to protect the incumbent president against potential primary challenges.
New Hampshire, which is required by state law to hold the nation’s first primary, held its nominating contest anyway, the results of which were not initially sanctioned by the DNC.
In a statement, a DNC official said the committee could begin considering the 2028 calendar as early as later this year.
“The DNC is committed to running a fair, transparent, and rigorous process for the 2028 primary calendar,” a committee spokesperson said. “All states will have an opportunity to participate and have their voices heard during that process.”
Buckley, the New Hampshire Democratic Party chair, said he saw 2024 as an “anomaly” and was optimistic that the state would regain its place.
Iowa Democrats are less sure, especially after one of its members, Scott Brennan, lost his position on the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee.
“I do expect to have tough and direct conversations with the DNC regarding our Iowa caucuses and the serious concerns surrounding the Biden 2024 calendar,” Rita Hart, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, said in a statement. “National Democrats let Trump get a headstart in the 2024 campaign by excluding Iowa.”
State strategists say to expect a different approach from the party this time around.
“In 2023, the attitude among the party and elected officials was, ‘let’s play nice with the DNC and hope they don’t screw us,” Link said. “And I think that attitude has totally changed.”