Almost exactly one year ago, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer was headed toward becoming the next Republican Speaker of the House — until Donald Trump said no.
For one brief afternoon in October 2023, Emmer was the GOP nominee to be speaker. Only for Trump to speak up, and for Emmer to almost immediately drop out.
“I have many wonderful friends wanting to be Speaker of the House, and some are truly great Warriors,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Oct. 24, 2023. “RINO Tom Emmer, who I do not know well, is not one of them.”
Trump went on to note that Emmer was saying he is “Pro-Trump all the way.”
“But who can ever be sure?” Trump asked. “Has he only changed because that’s what it takes to win?”
Emmer has spent the last year answering those questions for Trump — and he’s positioned himself as a potential alternative to Mike Johnson, should things not work out for the speaker or the other Louisiana Republican at the top of House GOP leadership, Steve Scalise.
How Emmer got himself to this point is a case study in winning over Trump, and it could be pivotal for his future and the relationship between House Republicans and a man who could be president in fewer than 100 days.
“At this point, Trump does like Emmer, and JD likes him too,” a source close to the Trump campaign told NOTUS. “I very much see a situation where Emmer, if Republicans lose the House, he could be minority leader.”
Of course, Emmer may be eyeing a different position too.
Sources told NOTUS Trump wasn’t lying in his Truth Social post a year ago: He didn’t know Emmer. And these sources said one of the keys for Emmer repairing his relationship with Trump was that he was more starting from scratch than fixing a sour connection.
“I don’t think Emmer was ever hated by Trumpworld or Donald Trump himself, I just think he was a total nonentity,” one person close to Trump told NOTUS. “He didn’t have a direct relationship with the president, his team didn’t have relationships with people in his orbit and the last year he started to work to build those relationships.”
Two sources close to the Trump campaign said similar things — that Trump didn’t exactly hold Emmer in disdain so much as he was swayed by some people who did.
One of the sources said the Steve Bannon wing of the party still holds a grudge against Emmer following his time as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, when Republicans barely won back the House after spending a year talking about a “red wave.”
Those same people viewed the Minnesota Republican as insufficiently conservative, citing his votes to protect gay marriage and to certify the 2020 election.
“Trump torpedoing Emmer goes to the Bannon wing of the party wanting Jim Jordan,” a source close to the Trump campaign told NOTUS. “People were dishonest about who Emmer is to Trump.”
With different people in Trump’s ear talking negatively about Emmer, combined with Trump’s lack of a relationship with the congressman and a couple of data points — such as Emmer’s vote to certify the 2020 election — the former president was easily convinced that Emmer wasn’t a natural ally.
But if you talk to sources who have known Emmer for years, including lawmakers and staff, the image of Emmer as insufficiently pro-Trump is, actually, laughable. Emmer was an early and enthusiastic Trump fan, and was the only Republican from Minnesota’s congressional delegation to attend the 2016 GOP convention. And more to the point, Emmer has convinced Trump that it’s laughable as well.
According to half a dozen sources who spoke to NOTUS for this story, Emmer’s stock isn’t just rising within Trumpworld; the former president has taken a personal liking to the Minnesota Republican and has been particularly impressed with him over the past few months.
“He didn’t try to worm his way in, he was actually being helpful,” another source close to Trump told NOTUS, adding that Emmer “did it right.”
“Some people think they’re going to get their way in by showing up to Mar-a-Lago and kissing ass,” this person continued. “But the important thing is staff see you being helpful, and when staff see that, there’s going to be less shit talking about you around the president, which goes a long way.”
Emmer’s efforts to win over Trump go back more than a couple of months. He made significant strides with Trump in January when he rallied the Minnesota Republican congressional delegation together to back Trump. He also held a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago in March, which Trump spoke at.
Additionally, Emmer hosted Trump at a fundraiser in Minnesota in May and spoke at a rally for the former president in the state in July. He was also named Minnesota’s state chairman of Trump’s 2024 campaign in March.
But while Emmer’s entreaties date back for quite some time now, his recent efforts have only strengthened his bond with Trump.
Perhaps the most effective way Emmer has helped his standing with Trumpworld was to stand in as Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz during JD Vance’s debate prep.
Sources previously told NOTUS that Emmer was “super prepared” and people took notice.
“It was really smart of him to help Sen. Vance with his debate prep,” one of the sources close to Trump told NOTUS. “And the word going around Trumpworld is he took that role really seriously and it was very clear that he had prepped hard for it.”
Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, seconded this notion, saying, “Whip Tom Emmer is a great man and a great ally to President Trump.”
“Whip Emmer has helped the campaign in numerous ways, including by helping to successfully prepare Sen. Vance for his dominant debate victory over failed Minnesota Governor Tim Walz,” she continued.
A spokesperson for Emmer declined to comment.
Whether Emmer’s new standing with Trump will matter is the real question. A few things have to fall in place for Emmer to really benefit from his newfound status with Trump.
But should Trump win and down-ballot elections go a certain way — like if Republicans lose or barely hang on to the House — it appears increasingly unlikely that Trump would torpedo Emmer’s ascension again.
“It is fully recognized that Emmer is exceeding everyone’s expectations,” one of the sources close to the Trump campaign told NOTUS.
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Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.