A week ago, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise seemed to know exactly what he wanted out of this lame-duck session: a government funding deal that would push the shutdown deadline into late next year.
Scalise emphasized the importance of a fresh slate for Donald Trump’s first 100 days. He wanted to focus on a sweeping reconciliation package of tax cuts and border security measures, not an appropriations deal and a potential government shutdown.
But now, suddenly, Scalise has changed his tune.
“I’m not going to make the case for either one,” he said of a spending deal that goes into March and another spending deal that goes until October.
Unlike a week ago, Scalise said he has no concerns about the conference’s ability to tackle both government funding and a reconciliation package simultaneously.
“We’re still going to be able to deal with multiple things at the same time,” Scalise told NOTUS.
Increasingly, that appears to be the direction Congress is headed.
Speaker Mike Johnson seems to be pushing the House Republican conference toward a continuing resolution into March, potentially aware that a year-end spending deal — negotiated between Republicans, Democrats and President Joe Biden — would be politically disastrous weeks before he comes up for a speaker vote.
“We’ll have a temporary measure,” Johnson said on Fox News Sunday. “I think that would go into the first part of next year and allow us the necessary time to get this done.”
Three Republican members confirmed to NOTUS that Johnson pushed for a continuing resolution into March in the Republican conference meeting Tuesday morning.
But a big problem, as is often the case with House Republicans, is that Republicans have high hopes for what they can get in exchange for keeping the government open.
Just a couple months ago, House Republicans insisted the SAVE Act — a bill that would make it illegal for noncitizens to vote, which is already illegal — needed to be attached to any short-term funding bill. Ultimately, Republicans relented and passed a funding extension Dec. 20.
At the time, part of the problem for Johnson was that some Republicans were so opposed to continuing resolutions that, even with the SAVE Act attached, they opposed the legislation anyway.
Many Republicans — particularly within the House Freedom Caucus — still detest CRs. But Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris told NOTUS that, if the CR were just going until March, when Republicans have unified control of Washington, he’d support the stopgap.
By delaying an appropriations fight until Trump has taken office, Republicans are, once again, just delaying the ultimate standoff — and potentially setting up Trump for a politically damaging government shutdown. But many Republicans see it differently. They say they’re setting Trump and Republicans up to win.
“Nine months of Democrat spending levels does not help President Trump’s agenda, it hinders it,” Rep. Andrew Clyde, a member of the Freedom Caucus and the Appropriations Committee, told NOTUS.
“I’m in favor of doing our appropriations in such a way that we have Republican policy and Republican spending levels, and we pass it with only Republican votes,” he said.
That view isn’t universal among the GOP conference.
When NOTUS asked House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole about Clyde’s argument, the Oklahoma Republican outright rejected it.
“It’s not going to be a better deal, it’ll be about the same deal,” Cole said. “The reality is, they still have the filibuster over there” — meaning in the Senate — “so even though we have a majority, it doesn’t really change the negotiating dynamics on appropriations bills.”
“Anybody who thinks they’re going to deal the Democrats out, they’re not,” Cole added.
(Appropriations bills can’t be passed through reconciliation and therefore need 60 Senate votes to overcome a cloture vote.)
“I would actually argue the best time to make a deal with the Democrats is now,” Cole said. “They’re afraid of Trump coming in, they’re afraid of the majority. Right now, they’re anxious to deal. That’s usually the best time to strike a deal.”
Rep. Ryan Zinke, who also serves on the Appropriations Committee, said a larger spending deal was still in play, and that members were advocating for it during the Republican conference meeting Tuesday.
“A lot of the members like me are saying, ‘I’ll work through Christmas,’” he said. “I think most serious legislators will work through Christmas to get the job done.”
Part of the problem, Zinke said, is that the majority of members weren’t around during Trump’s first year in office, in 2017, when a budget wasn’t adopted until May.
“Those of us that were, when you’re dealing with yesterday’s appropriations and debt ceilings and when you kick the can, it complicates things, and it just chews up the first 100 days,” he said.
If there is any hope of an omnibus deal to fund the government through September, Cole and other Republican appropriators said Johnson needs to let them know immediately.
“There’s a lot of work to do, but we have to be given the green light,” said Rep. Ken Calvert, yet another Appropriations Committee member. “We’re waiting on it.”
Ultimately, what the conference does may have less to do with Johnson and everything to do with Trump.
“I mean, if the president-elect comes out and says, ‘Hey, I want you all to finish this up so I don’t have to deal with funding in the first 100 days of my presidency,’ then it’ll happen,” Rep. Larry Bucshon said. “If he comes out and says, ‘Pass the CR and we’ll deal with it,’ then it’ll happen.”
Bucshon said “the biggest wild card” is just what Trump advises. But the Senate is its own question.
Senators from both parties have seemed to prefer getting a larger appropriations deal done before Trump takes office. But Republican Senate leaders have also suggested that they would take their cues from the House.
On Monday, incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Punchbowl News that, if the House could only move a three-month government funding extension, then the Senate would have to adapt.
“We’ll see eventually what the traffic will bear, but that seems to be what the speaker is coming down on,” Thune said.
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Katherine Swartz is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.