The question of who will be the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee next year won’t be resolved until after the midterm elections. But the campaigning is already underway.

At stake is the panel’s top GOP slot — a powerful perch that helps shape defense policy, oversees the Pentagon and influences the party’s national security agenda.

Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers’ term as the lead Republican on the committee expires in January. Reps. Trent Kelly of Mississippi and Rob Wittman of Virginia are vying to replace him — and the showdown is heating up.

Armed Services leadership races are typically quiet, internal matters before they are decided by the House Republican Steering Committee. But the contest burst into the open this week when Wittman — the panel’s vice chair and Rogers’ preferred successor — was dealt a possibly politically fatal setback. Virginia voters on Tuesday cleared a path for a new electoral map that would drastically reshape his red-leaning district.

Then Kelly confirmed this week that he is running to be the GOP committee lead, and Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies on the Hill, told Politico he is considering it, too. Wittman, whose aspirations to follow Rogers haven’t been a secret, is one of multiple parties who have sued to derail the redistricting measure. The day after the election, a judge in one case blocked the state from certifying the results. The Virginia Supreme Court will take up some of the issues Monday.

The outcome of the court fights could upend how national security policy is decided on Capitol Hill.

If Republicans lose control of the House after November’s elections, the committee’s unique, bipartisan traditions still make the ranking member influential, and that leverage could grow if Democrats hold just a slim majority.

If Democrats do take the House, they are expected to confront Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth on a range of national security controversies — and the top Republican on the House Armed Service Committee can decide how obstructive or how cooperative his side will be.

The National Defense Authorization Act, produced reliably by the House and Senate armed services committees for decades, is one of the few pieces of major bipartisan legislation. While it does not dedicate funding, it’s one of Congress’ most consequential must-pass bills, setting policy and shaping everything from weapons programs to service member pay.

The differences between Wittman’s and Kelly’s approaches are mostly stylistic.

Wittman is known as a deeply studious, affable and press-friendly lawmaker who has frequently worked across the aisle with the Seapower Subcommittee’s top Democrat, Rep. Joe Courtney, when Wittman chaired the subcommittee. Wittman is also seen as an advocate for naval readiness and shipbuilding programs.

“I’m still in the running,” Wittman said. “We’re confident the Supreme Court is going to do its job and overturn this unconstitutional and illegal gerrymander. And nothing has changed for me.”

Kelly, a former National Guard major general, is known for his blunt decisiveness and as the vice chair of the House Intelligence Committee. He confirmed that he has been campaigning hard among Steering Committee members — “I’m not joking,” he promised — and outlined his resume. “Military service at a strategic level, Army War College [graduate],” he said. “Subcommittee ranking or chair on three of the HASC subcommittees — pretty much have a lot of extensive experience and obviously, understand the national security world.”

Defense insiders expect Rogers, the panel’s top Republican since 2021, to apply for a waiver to override the term limit and stay on as the top Republican if Wittman loses the redistricting fight, though Rogers declined to say whether he’d seek that path.

“I’m going to decide what I’m going to do after the November election,” he said, adding praise for Kelly and Wittman. “Both of them are great. I’m a big fan of both of those rascals.”

The House GOP Steering Committee typically chooses committee leaders based on not only seniority, expertise and leadership, but also fundraising ability on behalf of the National Republican Congressional Committee. But Trump could attempt to put his finger on the scale in favor of a less senior candidate, Jackson.

Jackson, who chairs the panel’s Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee, is a retired Navy rear admiral who formed a connection with Trump during his service as a White House physician. He’s seen as a more conservative and partisan figure than any of the other candidates.

“Trump wants somebody like that on every committee because they’re all going to investigate him,” said one defense lobbyist granted anonymity to speak candidly.