Democrats’ progressive and centrist factions are on track for a major showdown in Minnesota next year.
In the primary to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith, two leading candidates from Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party — Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig — have emerged with clashing views of how to rebuild the party after Donald Trump’s second White House victory. The progressive Flanagan, a former community organizer, preaches about the need to embrace a bold vision of governance. Craig, who represents a battleground House district, pledges to court Republican voters and boasts about her ability to campaign in deep red areas.
Their differing approaches are representative of a larger split in the Democratic Party in the second Trump era, as the party debates how it can recover from last November’s defeats. The Minnesota Senate primary will be an indicator of what a winning message looks like for Democrats: appealing to the center or leaning into progressivism.
“This is a test case for the Democratic Party over the next two years,” said Abou Amara, a Minnesota-based Democratic strategist. “Following the 2024 election, Democrats are really looking inward and asking ourselves where we went wrong and how we went wrong. And there are two divergent arguments about how to move forward.”
The primary became a two-woman race this month when former state Sen. Melisa López Franzen unexpectedly dropped out — a move some strategists in the state saw as a recognition that Flanagan and Craig’s combined popularity left little room for a third viable challenger. The eventual nominee will start the general election as a favorite; Republicans last won a Senate race in Minnesota in 2002.
In interviews, Democratic strategists described a race between Flanagan and Craig as an ideal matchup between the party’s competing wings, as both candidates are eager to put their respective vision for the future front and center in their campaigns.
“If each wing of the party could pick who they thought their standard-bearer was given the options available, this is how it would have worked out,” Amara said.
Both candidates are running on their records and a genuine belief that their strategies are the right way forward, sources said. A Democratic strategist with knowledge of both Craig’s and Flanagan’s campaigns corroborated this and told NOTUS that “what a lot of strategists are talking about right now is the need for folks to be authentic and for voters to hear them and say, OK, I know where this person stands.’”
“Beyond anything, it’s about authenticity,” this strategist said. “Both [Craig and Flanagan] have a long record. They’re not unknown quantities. They have to lean into it.”
Flanagan — who is the first Native American to hold statewide office in Minnesota — is a longtime activist in the state and has successfully pushed for hallmark progressive legislation, such as increased benefits for families, to be adopted at a statewide level.
Given how popular progressive policies have been in the state, Flanagan is banking on this record to give her a winning edge, sources with knowledge of her campaign strategy told NOTUS. Early polling already shows Flanagan beating Craig by a wide margin, likely aided by her high name recognition in the state.
Flanagan’s circle says that mounting backlash to Trump’s policies could further bolster her messaging. In her campaign launch video, for example, Flanagan called for drug prices across the board to be lowered, even for patients not on Medicare, and touted her support for paid-family-leave policies in the state. Flanagan has also refused to accept campaign donations from corporate PACs.
“The time for excuses is past,” she said in the video. “We need leaders who actually know how regular people live and have the political courage to actually help them.”
A top Democrat in Minnesota also described Flanagan’s campaign strategy as hinging on authenticity. Flanagan, they said, is “not the kind of person who would believe in inclusion and then not campaign on it.”
“Some politicians can have one set of beliefs that they hold and then they campaign in another way,” this Democrat told NOTUS. Flanagan “is sincere — and I’ve known her her entire adult life.”
Flanagan has also secured the support of some of the most powerful progressive Democrats.
“She is the partner I need in the Senate to make real progress on the issues that matter to you: housing, child care and the cost of living,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in a video endorsing Flanagan. “And she’s the leader you deserve to fight for your family.”
In addition to Warren, Flanagan has snagged endorsements from former Sen. Al Franken, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison and dozens of state, local and community leaders, including some from Craig’s district. Top national progressive groups are also gearing up to endorse her, according to the Democratic strategist with knowledge of her and Craig’s campaigns. She’s also seen as an early front-runner to win the DFL’s endorsement next year, given that the members who decide whether to support candidates often lean further to the left than the electorate as a whole.
Despite her backers, Flanagan will have to prove she can raise the money necessary to win a statewide race, which some strategists say will cost at least $5 million in the primary alone.
And Flanagan’s relationship with her state’s most powerful Democrats is reportedly somewhat frosty, though allies say she and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have been on better terms in recent months. Still, Democrats in the state say they don’t expect the governor, or Sen. Amy Klobuchar, to make endorsements in the primary
Flanagan aides are quick to point out that the lieutenant governor has a pragmatic streak, citing her past work with Republican lawmakers in the state legislature.
Likewise, Craig advisers say her reputation as a compromise-seeking lawmaker belies her past activism: The congresswoman, who is openly gay, was an early advocate for same-sex marriage and allowing same-sex couples to adopt children. In her campaign kickoff speech, Craig pointed to that advocacy as proof she was ready to take on and win fights for liberal values.
But since starting her campaign in April, Craig has emphasized a more conciliatory approach to politics than Flanagan’s — one that prioritizes Democrats reconnecting with conservative voters in rural and other red areas.
Her campaign launch video showed her driving a Jeep to meet voters in the state’s farmland. In a speech kicking off her candidacy, she balanced talk of fighting back against Trump with support for issues like streamlining government regulations and updating zoning laws.
Most of all, she talked about her own electoral record of winning a suburban Minneapolis battleground House district in every election since 2018, including a blowout double-digit victory last year.
“We outperformed in rural towns and townships, and we won our light-blue district by nearly 14 points,” Craig said. “And that’s what we need to be doing, that’s what we have to do. We have to show up everywhere. We have to listen to everyone.”
Craig, a member of the fiscally moderate New Democratic Coalition, was also one of the first Democratic lawmakers to call on former President Joe Biden to quit the presidential race last year. In 2020, she endorsed Klobuchar during the party’s presidential primary.
Even some longtime activists in the state have endorsed Craig, saying Democrats need candidates like her ready to win over moderate and even Republican-leaning voters.
As one Craig adviser put it, the party’s base wants Democrats with mainstream ideological views and a track record of winning tough elections, not candidates with an untested policy vision that could turn off independents.
Whether that advisers’ view proves correct this election cycle remains to be seen: Minnesota has a long tradition of progressive governance, some strategists caution, and the primary electorate includes a wide range of voters that include many immigrants and urban activists.
Dave Wellstone, who co-founded the activist training group Wellstone Action (now known as re:power), said he has known Flanagan for decades and considers her both a friend and an impressive candidate for the Senate. But he thinks Craig is Democrats’ best bet to engage with voters who have drifted from the party in recent elections.
“We need to, as a party, broaden again,” Wellstone said. “And it’s working hard at everything we’re doing, but it’s also reaching out to people who might feel forgotten. And I think Angie can do that and wants to do that.”
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Alex Roarty is a reporter at NOTUS. Tinashe Chingarande is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.