‘Rage Turnout’ Ahead? Democrats Are Hopeful their Primary Bump Fuels Midterms

A turnout surge in the 2026 Democratic primaries continued this week in Illinois, as the party’s voters again cast ballots in far greater numbers than they did in the last midterm election.

It’s a boomlet already reshaping the Democrats’ many intense primary contests — and boosting confidence among party strategists that Democrats could benefit from a big turnout wave in November’s general election.

“Nobody shows up to a parade for losers,” said Caitlin Legacki, a Democratic strategist. “And the enthusiasm we’re seeing in Dem primaries vs. the lack of enthusiasm we’re seeing in Republican primaries is a pretty strong signal.”

Parties traditionally enjoy a turnout boost in midterm years after they lose a presidential election. But Democratic operatives say they’ve been pleasantly surprised with the level of engagement in this year’s primaries, especially when the party’s image is at historic lows.

In Tuesday’s Illinois primary, the Senate race saw a nearly 50% increase in participation compared to the last midterm election in 2022, jumping from 860,000 votes to a projected 1.28 million votes when all ballots are counted.

The increase was even larger in some House races. Illinois’ 8th Congressional District saw a 63% increase relative to 2022, from 43,000 votes to a projected 70,000 votes. The 9th district saw a 71% hike, increasing from 77,000 in 2022 to 132,000 this week.

Democrats offer a lot of explanations for why turnout has so significantly increased this year. But at the center of it, most of them say, is a visceral anger at President Donald Trump, motivating even voters who normally avoid politics to become involved.

“I think there’s a strong likelihood of a rage turnout this year,” said Aviva Bowen, an Illinois-based Democratic strategist who worked on some of the contested House primaries in Chicago this week.

The comparisons aren’t perfect. The Illinois Senate race in 2022 was an uncontested romp for Sen. Tammy Duckworth, for example, while this year’s contest featured three prominent candidates in a tight battle for the nomination.

But Democratic primaries in other states have also seen a turnout jump. In North Carolina’s primary earlier this month, former Gov. Roy Cooper effectively ran unopposed for the party’s Senate nomination. But his race still saw a 34% turnout increase from 2022, jumping from 619,000 votes to 827,000 votes.

Other Senate Democratic primaries saw even larger spikes. In Mississippi, turnout increased by nearly 90% from 2024, from 82,000 votes to 154,000 votes.

And Texas’ primary had the largest increase of all, after 2.3 million people cast a ballot in March. Like Mississippi, the state did not have a Senate race in 2022, but in 2024, only 970,000 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary — meaning this year’s contest had a 137% increase in participation.

High voter turnout in primaries doesn’t necessarily translate into increased participation in the general election, and Democrats must still overcome significant challenges with their party’s fundraising and image among voters to have success in November. Even if they do benefit from a turnout surge this year, many of 2026’s races, especially in the Senate, are in the kind of deep red areas where they would also need a significant number of swing voters to win.

But party strategists are closely monitoring the turnout surge, confident it’s a sign that the party can count on a wave of enthusiastic voters helping their candidates.

“From the massive success of California’s Prop 50 to overwhelming Democratic turnout in Texas and North Carolina, it’s clear that voters across the country are fired up and ready to deliver Democrats a House majority,” said Courtney Rice, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, pointing to the party’s blowout victory in a California redistricting referendum.

A DCCC analysis that compared voter data in North Carolina in 2024 and 2026 found a similar surge in Democratic turnout. In 2024, 60% of all House ballots cast in the congressional primaries were for Republican candidates, the DCCC found. The ratio flipped this year, however, with nearly 60% of all House ballots cast in the primary for Democratic candidates, according to the analysis.

Some Democrats caution that even if turnout soared in places like Texas, the gains were more modest in places like Illinois.

Bowen said turnout in Chicago was up compared to 2022 but had actually dropped significantly from 2018, the last midterm in which Trump was president. Democrats easily won a House majority that year, gaining 41 seats.

“This ain’t Texas,” Bowen said, quoting Beyoncé.

Some political strategists also acknowledge the turnout spike but dispute the reason for it and the implications it carries for the general election. Republican pollster Brent Buchanan said he thought the presence of two dynamic Democratic candidates on the ballot in Texas, state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, at least partially explains why so many Democratic voters turned out earlier this month.

Buchanan added that his research showed that many of the voters who cast a ballot in the primary also already regularly vote for Democratic candidates in the general election, meaning that the surge might not indicate that a wave of new voters is heading to the general election.

“It feels more like they are moving around deck chairs more than they are putting out new deck chairs,” said the pollster.

Republicans might be less enthused to vote in their primaries, he said, but are still likely to turn out in November.

“The stories being written are that this is the tombstone of the Republican Party, just because some Democrats decided to show up in their own primary,” he said.

The 2018 midterm also featured less internal tension within the Democratic Party than 2026, a year in which progressive activists have vowed to take on longtime Democratic incumbents and challenged establishment favorites in a number of contested open seats.

Some activist groups taking on the party establishment this year say the increased turnout is a reflection of a wave of progressive candidates on the ballot who can appeal to a new group of voters.

“At a time when the Democratic establishment’s popularity is underwater with its own base, what excites Democratic voters the most are a new generation of candidates like the ones we’re supporting that have a bold vision for the future of this country with solutions that match the scales of our crises and the political courage to call out the Democratic Party’s failures and corporate corruption,” said Usamah Andrabi, spokesperson for Justice Democrats, which has endorsed a series of challengers to incumbents and party establishment-backed candidates in races this year.

A new set of candidates is essential to make sure the turnout surge continues into the general election, he said.

“One thing is clear, Democratic voters will not turn out in droves in November if their only options are the same 200+ Democrats that were sworn in at the start of this Congress — they want new, bold leadership, and the same tired incumbents will keep voters at home,” Andrabi said.

That surge in voters has created some challenges for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee won her primary by a single percentage point against challenger Nida Allam, a closer race than the two candidates’ first matchup in 2022. This year’s race saw a significant spike in turnout from four years ago, when about 90,000 people voted in the Democratic primary.

Roughly 125,000 people voted in the Democratic primary for North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District this year, a 39% increase from 2022.

Activist groups say they are working diligently to identify and engage with the potential surge of voters, cognizant that their collective votes could swing the outcome of the election.

That dynamic could also create problems in some of the general election’s top races, like in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District or California’s 22nd Congressional District, where liberal and establishment-backed moderate candidates are squaring off.

“The Democrat base is desperately itching for the furthest-left candidate, and this contest has turned into a litmus test for every Democrat primary,” said Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “This might satisfy their base, but it’s producing unelectable nominees and putting their must-win House races at risk.”