Democrats are betting that a sharp shift in voter attitudes since the 2024 election will power them to major national gains in next year’s midterm elections.
Nowhere is that more true than in the Ohio Senate race.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown formally entered the state’s Senate race on Monday, less than a year after voters rejected the blue-collar Democrat’s bid for a fourth term and after months of speculation that he might run for governor or retire from public life altogether instead. He’ll take on Republican Sen. Jon Husted in what both parties expect will be a competitive race that Democrats likely need to win to have any chance at claiming a majority in the Senate.
In backing Brown, Democrats are hoping that some portion of voters who opposed him in 2024 are feeling buyer’s remorse now. That makes the race perhaps the best barometer for how politics has changed since the last election, including whether voters frustrated about the economy blame Republicans and whether issues like immigration and trans student athletes remain as politically potent as they were last year.
“In some ways, Sherrod can say, ‘This is what I was worried about when I was running last year,’” said David Pepper, former chair of the Ohio Democratic Party. “And even voters who didn’t vote for him then might say, ‘You know what, he was right.’”
Brown’s announcement video focuses heavily on events since Trump was inaugurated, citing “reckless tariffs” and a GOP-backed law that restricts access to health insurance programs through Medicaid. Democrats have said that they expected the GOP’s support for the massive tax-and-spending-cut bill, often referred to as the “big, beautiful bill,” to be central to their electoral efforts next year.
“For the past eight months, all they’ve done is make things worse for Ohioans,” Brown said in the video. “Handing over your hard-earned money to corporations and to billionaires.”
The former senator lost his reelection last year to Republican challenger Bernie Moreno by less than 4 points. Democrats have taken heart that even if Brown lost, he still overperformed the top of his party’s ticket, Kamala Harris, by better than 7 points. (The former vice president lost her race to Trump by 11 points in Ohio.)
Ohio has trended right in recent years, with Republicans winning at the presidential level every election since Barack Obama in 2012.
Republicans say that Husted, as an incumbent and longtime statewide official, will have advantages against Brown that Moreno did not.
“We have the same message as it relates to Sherrod Brown,” said Alex Triantafilou, chair of the Ohio Republican Party. ”But we also have a really good story to tell about Jon Husted.”
After Brown’s announcement, groups allied with the Republican Party tied him to unauthorized immigration and transgender athletes, which they emphasized heavily during last year’s race. Some indicated they planned on deploying those same messages again during next year’s contest.
“Sherrod Brown built his disgraceful career on the backs of hardworking Ohio families while he supported the woke Left’s agenda, including amnesty for criminal illegal immigrants, men in girls’ locker rooms, and sticking seniors with higher taxes,” Alex Latchman, executive director for the Senate Leadership Fund, said in a statement. The super PAC backs GOP Senate candidates.
“Ohioans gladly sent him packing last year, and they’ll not hesitate to toss him aside again,” he continued.