Can a Republican Win an Election on Local Issues in 2024? This House Race Is a Major Test.

Republican Rep. John Duarte won a Democratic House seat on his record as a farmer and a moderate. Whether he can do it again could determine control of the House.

John Duarte

Rep. John Duarte arrives at the Capitol. J. Scott Applewhite/AP

MERCED COUNTY, California — When Adam Gray ran for Congress in 2022 — a year when he lost by 564 votes — he thought he had done everything right.

Gray had represented Merced in the California state Legislature for 10 years. He was such a champion for the Central Valley’s water rights that he got kicked off two committees by his own party. And in an area defined by its doctor shortage, he secured the funds to give the University of California, Merced, a desperately needed medical school.

But more than what he accomplished, Gray thought he had the exact right attitude to succeed as a Democrat in the Central Valley, the literal birthplace of the Blue Dog Democrat.