Today’s notice: Democrats are asking what year it is, legislative candidates are asking why you don’t care about them, “uncommitted” voters are asking after Jill Stein.
The Case for It Both Being and Not Being 2016
Just how 2016 is 2024? It is the meme of the moment, especially among terrified Democrats, but how true is it? Maybe not very. Take the closing arguments, for example.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign went big with a closing argument around Donald Trump’s fitness for office, often pointing to Republicans who claimed he was dangerous (we see you with your eyebrows raised and the words “Liz Cheney” on your lips, just hang on a second). Ads like this one, that ended with the tag, “Unfit. Dangerous,” that was where the money went.
This all certainly feels familiar — Kamala Harris is closing out on the trail looking for Republicans to join her cause, publicly agreeing that Trump is a fascist and ticking off the list of GOP names that have endorsed her (a list that actually keeps growing, so far as that goes). Then you add in the Bruce Springsteen concerts, the sometimes awkward Barack Obama messaging, that Harris is a woman candidate, the confusing polling and, buddy, it’s looking ’16-y out there.
But, maybe it isn’t. There’s an expensive closing economic message from Harris allies that was not around that cycle. The basic plan is to hammer the point that Trump is just another Republican looking out for rich people. CNN’s David Wright reported Monday that the most money spent on a TV ad by Democratic supporters over the previous week was a spot by Future Forward PAC featuring Rebecca, a real Republican voter who is turned off by Trump because of economic promises she says are too pro-fat cat.
Future Forward is pumping out a ton of economy-focused messaging at low-propensity voters in the final stretch, like this 60-second spot running heavily on swing state radio at the moment: “That guy in the Cybertruck who just zoomed by doesn’t need another break. But Kamala Harris knows you sure could use one.”
Harris allies say it’s working, and some recent polling backs it up. Some who saw 2016 from the inside remember people saying, Why aren’t you making the economic argument? We’re for the wage earners, he’s for the wealthy. This year, it’s happening. Feels very un-2016 to some.
“Since Trump rode down the escalator, Democrats have been pushing a boulder up a hill to win the economic argument against him and undo his economic brand,” said Jesse Ferguson, a 2016 Hillary veteran advising many campaigns this cycle. “That’s changed. The Harris campaign has told the story and her allies have run a large-scale ad campaign making the case in simple ways, so it seems like the nut is finally cracked.”
—Evan McMorris-Santoro
Another 2016 Vet Weighs In
If Democrats really don’t want to repeat the 2016 election with Trump, Tim Kaine says they need to run up the score.
“When he loses, he is going to say that he won. In order to pour cold water on that claim, you have to [have] the Electoral College show that we won. But also, the bigger the popular vote margin nationally, the harder it is to gain sympathy with a made-up claim that, ‘Oh, I really was the winner.’ So let’s win by a lot.”
Sounds easy, but it seems hard. The current polling averages show Harris’ lead in the popular vote, if she has one, at less than 2%.
—Amelia Benavides-Colón
What’s Up With Stacey Abrams? And Does Anybody Care?
Stacey Abrams, once the pride and joy of Southern Democratic politics, is out stumping for Democratic causes on the trail and via media appearances in the campaign season’s final stretch. But operatives in Georgia are over her.
As one Democratic operative told NOTUS’ Ben T.N. Mause, “It kind of feels like she’s fading in the background. Like, not trying to be mean to her, but, you know, you lost a lot.”
The hits don’t end there: “She hasn’t been good juju in a while,” said a former county chair.
Not everyone is done with Abrams just yet. Georgia state Rep. Sam Park, who considers Abrams a mentor, commended her for building “the infrastructure in Georgia by raising millions of dollars over a period of a decade, if not longer.”
But even Park said he’s heard of friction between Abrams and other Georgia Dems, suggesting the animosity spurred “from a bit of envy.”
Front Page
- Shifting Abortion Language Could Swing One of the Most Competitive House Races: Republican Rep. Tom Kean is labeling himself as “pro-choice,” frustrating Democrats who say his record says otherwise.
- Kamala Harris Wants to Raise the Minimum Wage. Advocates Say She Should Talk About It More: “Like, run on this issue,” one advocate said.
- Trump Spent Years Vilifying Early Voting. Now, Republicans Are Willing to Sue for More: Tensions over early voting access are boiling over in North Carolina, where the GOP’s messaging whiplash is playing out in the starkest terms.
The Swing State Races You’re Not Paying Attention To
All the attention and money is funneling into Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But all four of those states have neck and neck down-ballot races that will determine control of the state legislatures. Leslie Martes, a chief strategist at the Democratic group Forward Majority, gave NOTUS a breakdown.
Arizona: Republicans hold the House and Senate by one vote in each chamber. With close contests in Maricopa, Tucson and Yuma, Martes said even a tie “would still be a win in our eyes.” One name to keep in mind: Judy Schwiebert, who Martes called the key to Democrats taking control of the state Senate.
Michigan: The focus in Michigan is on expanding Democrats’ narrow two-seat majority in the House. “While a statewide candidate needs to run up the vote in Detroit, in order for us to hold the Michigan House, we have to win in those Detroit suburbs and Kalamazoo,” Martes said.
Pennsylvania: Democrats hold just a one-vote majority in the House, and flipping the Senate is top of mind for Martes, given the uncertainty in the state in 2020 over the certification of Joe Biden’s electors.
Wisconsin: New maps here mean pickup opportunities for Assembly seats in the suburbs. Keep your eyes on AD-51 west of Madison and AD-91 and AD-93 surrounding Eau Claire.
—Katherine Swartz
Some “Uncommitted” Voters Found Someone to Commit To
Less than two weeks from Election Day, many Michigan progressives, Arab Americans and young voters remain disappointed in Harris. So disappointed, in fact, that they’re voting for a candidate who stands no chance of winning: Jill Stein.
The reason, reports NOTUS’ Tinashe Chingarande, is simple: They want to punish Democrats for not ending the war in Gaza. “We want to break our community out of the mindset of the lesser evil,” Hudhayfah Ahmad, a representative with the Abandon Harris Campaign, said.
Official organizers with the “uncommitted” movement did not endorse Harris, preferring to issue an anti-endorsement of Trump. And not every Michigander concerned about the war in Gaza thinks Stein is the answer.
Former Rep. Andy Levin, for example, is desperate to stop a second Trump administration, reasoning it would be devastating to the Palestinian cause. “Voting for Stein helps Trump,” Levin said. “Staying home if you would otherwise vote for Harris, helps Trump.”
Number You Should Know
20%
As political observers prognosticate about whether the U.S. is ready to elect its first female president, there’s a worrying indicator down ballot. The number of major-party women House candidates has dropped by 20% since 2022. The figure is even bleaker in the Senate, where 26% fewer women threw their hat in the ring.
Why? Courtney Lamendola at the nonprofit RepresentWomen walked NOTUS through the challenges facing female candidates. She cited a lack of organizing in certain states to support women candidates, caregiving responsibility imbalances and fundraising disparities.
Then, of course, there’s the problem that’s also dogging Harris: sexism. “There’s a sort of inbuilt assumption that women aren’t qualified,” Lamendola said. “Until we can get out of that, we are going to keep asking ourselves these questions.”
—Riley Rogerson
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by … not us.
- ‘Take Back the States’: The Far-Right Sheriffs Ready to Disrupt the Election by David Gilbert at Wired
- A New Washington Influence Industry Is Making Millions From Sanctions by Jeff Stein, Federica Cocco and Peter Whoriskey at The Washington Post
- The Kamala Harris Stan Wars Have Reached a Fever Pitch by Faith Branch at The Nation
Tell Us Your Thoughts
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