PITTSBURGH — JD Vance had an optimistic message here Thursday afternoon about the Trump campaign, at odds with the city’s political reality. He promised that Republicans wouldn’t just show up in the Democratic stronghold, they would win it.
“We’re going to win Pittsburgh, we’re going to win Pennsylvania, we’re going to make Donald Trump the next president of the United States and it starts right here,” Vance told the crowd at his rally in the city’s downtown.
You’d be hard pressed to find a Republican in Pittsburgh or its suburbs that agrees with Vance’s take. Trump will almost certainly lose the county they’re in. But Allegheny County, Pennsylvania’s second-most populous county, has more than 250,000 registered Republicans. That’s more Republican voters than any other county in the state, and the ultimate margin Trump loses by could be a determining factor in whether he wins Pennsylvania and the presidency.
“Allegheny County is such a critical county to overperform in if you’re a Republican candidate statewide,” said Emily Greene, a senior adviser for Americans for Prosperity Action, which has a massive get-out-the-vote operation.
The group didn’t support Trump in the presidential primary, but it has knocked on 850,000 doors across Pennsylvania for Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick, about 200,000 of which have been in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Allegheny County is located.
Greene pointed to Republicans’ recent results in the county. In 2016, former Republican Sen. Pat Toomey won 40% of Allegheny County and went on to beat his opponent. Trump won almost exactly 40% of the vote there that year too, and also won the state in that election. For a candidate to win statewide, they need to hit that threshold, Greene said — otherwise they could end up like Dr. Mehmet Oz in 2022, who only won 34% of the vote in the county and lost his race to Sen. John Fetterman.
On Thursday afternoon, several AFP canvassers knocked on doors in northern Allegheny County, in Wexford, an affluent, traditionally Republican suburb that would be central to Trump’s victory. Except there wasn’t a single Trump sign to be found. There’s plenty of support for McCormick, or for Rob Mercuri, the Republican running for Congress in the district. The swing and lean Republican voters that the canvassers spoke to were sure of those candidates. They weren’t so sure about Trump.
“I think the actual reason it’s going to be close isn’t because of the number of Democrats or Republicans, but the number of people who don’t vote,” 65-year-old Karen Zydel said at her doorstep. “Maybe they don’t agree with [Kamala Harris’] policies, but they hate Trump.”
Zydel said she’d still be voting for Trump, but she wasn’t happy about it. “He bugs the crap out of me to be quite honest,” she said.
On the Democratic side, turning out votes in Pittsburgh and its suburbs is crucial for the Harris campaign, which needs a strong showing in urban and suburban areas to make up for losses across rural Pennsylvania. Harris and Walz have made a combined six appearances in Allegheny County compared to Vance’s two (and none from Trump himself).
To make up for losses in Allegheny’s suburbs, the Trump campaign has to offset in the county more broadly. Sam DeMarco, chair of the county Republican Party, said the main group he’s targeting is low-propensity voters.
“We need to get every single one of these Republicans out to vote, and to vote Trump-Vance,” DeMarco said. “This race is going to be won on the margins, and it’s going to be tight.”
He’s tying the top of the ticket to a more localized message. Allegheny County Executive Sara Innamorato, a Democrat, recently proposed a 46.5% increase in property tax, which would be the first increase in 12 years. DeMarco emphasized that the election, both for Trump and down ballot, is tied to pocketbook issues.
Outside the Vance rally on Thursday, Will Austin worked to register voters for Early Vote Action, a grassroots group that’s working in Pennsylvania to turn out low-propensity voters for Trump. Austin said he’s seen a significant number of students registering to vote as Republicans in Pittsburgh.
“The young people are waking up. I’ve literally been shocked at how many young voters we’ve had come up to us, approach us and want to vote for Donald Trump,” Austin said. “It’s shocking because I didn’t expect to come to downtown Pittsburgh and have so many young folk want to support Trump here.”
Despite Vance’s assurance of a Pittsburgh win, DeMarco said Trump is “likely” to lose the county. But DeMarco said he’s confident Trump can reach his threshold in this county again.
“The higher the share of the vote that we can get here, then the greater the chance that the vote we get out of the part of the state between here and Philadelphia puts us over the top,” DeMarco said.
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Katherine Swartz is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.